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These days, a tremendous game of check-mate has started in the politics of Jharkhand regarding the Rajya Sabha elections. This contest on the two Rajya Sabha seats of the state has once again exposed the rift within the ruling Grand Alliance (INDIA Bloc). Technically, even though on paper the alliance led by Chief Minister Hemant Soren appears to be in a very strong position, but the internal tussle and the shocking announcement of fielding candidates by the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) have made this entire election very interesting and full of suspense.
Know what is the mathematics of 28 votes and the equation of seats
If we understand the mathematics of the current 81 members of Jharkhand Assembly, then to directly win a seat in Rajya Sabha, any candidate needs at least 28 first preference votes. In this sense, a total of 56 MLAs are needed to win both the seats. Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) has 34 MLAs, Congress has 16, RJD has 4 and CPI-ML has 2. In this way the ruling coalition has a total figure of exactly 56. But the catch is that even the slightest mistake in this figure or cross voting can spoil the whole game.
Why does the rift between JMM and Congress persist?
At present, the biggest ruckus within the alliance is regarding seat sharing and claims. While Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) is considering its claim on one seat as confirmed on the basis of numbers, Congress has staked its claim on the other seat. Top Congress leaders have held marathon meetings from Ranchi to Delhi and this time they are not ready to back down at any cost. The party argues that they are major partners in the state government, hence one seat should come to their account. However, no universally accepted solution has been found so far in the ongoing tug-of-war between the top leadership of the two parties, which has increased the feeling of distrust among the allies.
Despite small numbers, BJP’s move created panic
The biggest twist in this entire political drama has come from the entry of BJP. BJP has only 21 MLAs in the Assembly and the total number of NDA including AJSU and other allies reaches only 24, which is 4 less than the magical victory figure of 28. Despite this, BJP has surprised everyone by announcing the field of its candidate in this election. After this aggressive step of BJP, the fear of ‘horse-trading’ (buying and selling of MLAs) has started haunting the JMM and Congress camps. This is why JMM has written a letter to the Election Commission demanding to keep the central and state investigating agencies alert during the entire election process, so that any major upset can be prevented.
