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Monsoon rains may have started in many parts of the country, but many areas are still craving every drop of water. According to the latest data received from the Meteorological Department (IMD), the country has so far recorded 43 percent less rainfall than normal. However, it is a matter of relief that by next month the monsoon will cover the entire country, due to which this shortfall is expected to be fulfilled to some extent. But meanwhile, the biggest concern is about the effect of ‘El Nino’, due to which the risk of less than normal rainfall in the country this year has increased to a great extent.
IOD becoming ineffective ahead of El Nino, IMD warns of 10% less rainfall
Meteorologists believe that only a meteorological phenomenon called ‘Indian Ocean Dipole’ (IOD) can reduce this dangerous effect of El Nino, but this time there seems to be very little hope of getting help from IOD. Keeping this in mind, the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a warning that this year the monsoon may be 10 percent less than normal. IMD had already predicted ‘below normal’ rainfall. According to the department, there is a 60% possibility that there will be a decrease of 10% or more in the total monsoon rainfall during June to September.
What is IOD, and why is it being compared to 2023?
If we look at history, the year 2023 is a great example, when a strong and positive IOD had suppressed the effect of very strong El Nino to a great extent, due to which India saw almost normal seasonal rainfall. If understood in technical language, IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) is a climatic phenomenon that reflects the difference in sea surface temperature between the western and eastern parts of the Indian Ocean. It, along with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), plays a major role in determining India’s summer monsoon.
Farmers’ problems increase, drought sounds in many states
This forecast of IMD has increased the concern of the food providers of the country. Due to the forecast of below normal rainfall between June and September, the drought crisis has deepened in many agricultural states. Even today, a large number of farmers in rural areas of India are completely dependent on monsoon rain water for farming. In such a situation, severe shortage of water can directly affect the sowing and production of crops, which can further impact food supply and prices.
Understand in figures: Severe shortage of monsoon from Meghalaya to UP-Bihar
The rainfall figures coming from different states of the country are really shocking. The northeastern state of Meghalaya has recorded the highest rainfall deficit of 82 percent. Whereas in the western state of Gujarat this reduction has reached 79 percent. Talking about other states, Manipur has received 71%, Chhattisgarh 68%, Jharkhand 66%, Maharashtra 59%, Uttar Pradesh 56%, Odisha 52% and Bihar 50% less rainfall than normal so far. Madhya Pradesh, which falls under the core monsoon region and where agriculture is completely dependent on it, also received 41% less rainfall than normal.
South and Central India are also in bad condition, Meteorological Department keeps a close watch
Surprisingly, in South Indian states like Karnataka, Kerala, Tamil Nadu and Telangana, monsoon had arrived 2-3 weeks before its scheduled time, yet a deficiency of more than 30% has been recorded in these states. If we talk about the regions of the entire country, the highest decline of 57% has been seen in Central India. After this, there has been 44% less rainfall in East and North-East India, 30% in South Peninsular India and 27% in North-West India. The Meteorological Department is continuously monitoring the speed of monsoon and the changing pattern of El Nino in the coming days.
