This week the stock market may remain volatile, ‘these’ factors will decide the market move

Share Market: This week many companies will announce the results of the March 2025 quarter i.e. the fourth quarter (Q4FY25-March). The results of Infosys, Wipro, HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, HDFC Life Insurance, HDFC AMC, ICICI Lombard, ICICI Prudential, Tata Elksy, Angel One, Vary Renewables, Network-18 and Yes Bank will be declared.

Retail inflation in India

At the domestic level, the market will be eyeing March retail inflation (CPI) figures, which will be released on April 15, which was 3.61% in February. Analysts believe that inflation may further decline due to lower food prices. This will give the Reserve Bank an opportunity to maintain a soft policy stance.

Experts estimate that the CPI will fall further due to low food inflation, resulting in the RBI policy softening. In addition, foreign exchange reserves for the month of March and passenger vehicle sales figures will be released on 18 April.

Tariff development

The US-China trade war is still a major factor to determine the market mood. Although Donald Trump has provided tariff discounts for 90 days to all countries except China, China has raised tariffs on American products to 125%.

Trump has exempted some technical products like smartphones and computers coming from China from tariffs, which has given relief to companies like Apple. According to market experts, if the trade war intensifies, it will adversely affect the emerging markets. Apart from this, focus will also be focused on the ongoing bilateral talks between India and the US.

Federal Reserve Bank President Geom Powell

On April 16, Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, will give a speech in which he can indicate future monetary policy. In his previous speech, he said that the Fed would not take any major decision until the situation is clear. In addition, US employment reports, retail sales data and industrial production figures will also affect the market.

ECB meeting and China’s GDP

The European Central Bank meeting and China’s first quarter GDP growth rate will also be important global indicators. The ECB is expected to reduce the deposit rate from 25 basis points to 2.25%.

Oil price

The market will also monitor the activity of crude oil prices. Brent crude futures improved slightly after falling at the lowest level of nearly four years last week, and at the end of the week it fell 1.25% to close at $ 64.76 per barrel.

This is good news for oil importing countries like India, as it can reduce both the cost of companies and the fiscal deficit of the government. Now everyone’s eyes are fixed on the OPEC+ meeting to be held on May 5, which can give a big signal about the supply of crude oil.

FII-DII flow

Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) remain pure sellers so far this month. FII has so far sold shares worth Rs 34,641.79 crore. The main reason for this is Trump’s tariff policy. If this trend of FII continues, the market may be limited. However, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have compensated to a large extent of this weakness and so far bought shares of Rs 27,588.18 crore.

Sensex declined by 207 points last week

Last week, the Sensex declined by 207 points or 0.27%. The Nifty also fell 75.9 (0.33%) last week. The Sensex rose 1,310 points (1.77%) to close at 75,157 on the last trading day of the week on Friday (April 11). The Nifty also climbed about 429 points to 22,829 levels.