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The bugle has been sounded for the biennial elections to be held on June 18 on 24 Rajya Sabha seats in 10 states of the country and by-elections on two seats. With this announcement of the Election Commission (ECI), the political temperature of the country has suddenly risen. The most interesting thing in this election is that despite having sufficient strength in the assemblies, lines of worry are clearly visible on the foreheads of the opposition parties (INDIA alliance).
The biggest fear of the opposition is ‘cross voting’ and possible rebellion of its own MLAs. There have been many such occasions in the past when opposition MLAs switched sides at the last moment, handing victory to Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) candidates. This time too, the equations are at a very delicate point in big states like Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand and Karnataka.
Jharkhand: JMM-Congress ahead in numbers game, still afraid of being ‘played’
The elections going to be held on two Rajya Sabha seats of Jharkhand have become very interesting. To win a seat in the 81-member assembly of the state, any candidate needs first preference votes of 28 MLAs. As per the current figures, the ruling alliance led by Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) has a total of 56 MLAs. The mathematics is very simple, the alliance can easily win both the seats.
But this is where the problem lies. BJP led NDA has 24 MLAs. If BJP makes the election triangular by fielding its candidate, then it will need only 4 additional votes to win the seat. In such a situation, if even 3 to 4 MLAs of the opposition cross-vote or the votes become invalid, then the game will completely change and the matter will go to second preference votes.
Karnataka: Interesting contest for 4 seats amid internal strife
In Karnataka too, the chessboard has been laid for 4 Rajya Sabha seats. Here the internal strife within the ruling Congress is not hidden from anyone. Congress and its allies have 135 MLAs in the assembly, while the BJP-JDS alliance has 85 MLAs. Here the quota of 45 votes is fixed for one seat.
If seen, Congress can easily win 3 seats and BJP 1 seat. But there is talk that BJP is trying to cause a major upset by fielding an additional candidate here with the help of disgruntled Congress MLAs. If this happens, Karnataka elections will become the most exciting and high-profile.
Madhya Pradesh: BJP’s ‘grand siege’ on Digvijay Singh’s seat
The contest is tough on 3 Rajya Sabha seats of Madhya Pradesh, where support of 58 MLAs is needed to win one seat. Even after making two of its candidates victorious, BJP is still left with 48 extra votes. That means, to capture the third seat, BJP will have to collect only 10 more votes. On the other hand, the opposition party Congress has 62 MLAs, which is enough to win one seat.
It is noteworthy that this time the seat of veteran Congress leader Digvijay Singh is falling vacant. There are speculations that if Digvijay Singh contests again, BJP can play a big gamble to corner him. History is witness to the fact that the last time there was a dispute over the Rajya Sabha seat due to Digvijay Singh, Jyotiraditya Scindia had left the Congress and the Kamal Nath government had fallen. Scindia is now a big commander of BJP, hence BJP is in no mood to give a walkover to the opposition here.
Know how many seats are to be voted in which state
The list of states in the country where voting for the Upper House will be held on June 18 is as follows:
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4-4 seats: Andhra Pradesh, Gujarat and Karnataka
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3-3 seats: Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan
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2 seats: Jharkhand
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1-1 seat: Manipur, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh and Mizoram
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By-election: By-elections are also to be held on 1 seat each in Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu.
Out of these vacant seats, currently 18 seats are with NDA (of which 12 are with BJP). This time it has to be seen whether BJP is able to make a dent in the opposition clan with its strategy or whether the opposition remains united and succeeds in saving its fort.