India’s birth rate at the historic low level, what does it mean for the future?

India, which was once considered one of the fastest growing countries in the world, has now reached a historic turn that has reached a record low 2.0. This simply means that now India has also come down from that ‘replacement level’ (replacement level), which is necessary to keep a population stable. The replacement level is usually considered 2.1, ie when a woman gives birth to a average of 2.1 children in her lifetime, the population does not decrease nor increases.

This figure is a sign of a significant change. Unlike the high birth rates that have been going on for decades, now the growth rate of India’s population is slowing down and it can also begin to decrease in the future. There are many important reasons behind this decline, the most prominent:

• Better Family Planning: Family planning methods and access to contraception have increased among people.

• Education and empowerment of women: By improving women’s education and socio-economic conditions, they are getting better control over their fertility and they are taking late decisions to have marriage and children.

• Awareness and health facilities: Increasing awareness about family planning and reproductive health and better health services are also helpful in this.

• Urbanization and lifestyle changes: The tendency of small families has increased due to urbanization, where it is considered easy to raise less children.

So what does it mean for the future of India?

There are two major aspects of this demographic change – some advantages and some challenges.

Possible advantages:

• Lower pressure on resources: Decreasing birth rate means that the pressure of the population on limited natural resources, such as water, food and land will be reduced.

• Improvement in standard of living: Per capita income may increase and facilities like education, health and infrastructure can improve, as resources will have to be divided into less people.

• Opportunity of ‘Demographic Dividend’: This can be a golden opportunity, as now the ratio of the working age of India is increasing in the total population and the ratio of dependents (children and the elderly) is decreasing. If this task force is given the right opportunity and skills, then it can give new pace to the country’s economic growth.

Possible challenges:

• Rising elderly population: A direct result of low birth rate is the increase in the elderly population. The number of youth will be less in future and the number of elderly will be high, which will increase the burden of pension, health care and social security on them.

• Workforce reduction: If these trends continue, the country may face lack of labor force in the long term, which can negatively affect economic development.

• Gender imbalance: If old trends like ‘son’s desire’ continue and the birth rate decreases, then the sex ratio may worsen in the future, which can have severe social consequences.

This shows that India is on the path adopted by developed countries in terms of population, where the decline in TFR is a common thing. This is an important turn for India, where this change can be managed better through strategic planning and policies, so that the country can take maximum advantage of its ‘Demographic Dividend’ and face the upcoming challenges.