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There has been a continuous upheaval in the diplomacy of South Asia since the change of power and political turmoil in the neighboring country Bangladesh. Meanwhile, a very shocking and strategically sensational news is coming out from Dhaka, which has become the biggest center of discussion in the diplomatic circles between both India and China. The head of Bangladesh’s top intelligence agency has suddenly and quietly arrived on a visit to Delhi, so that the deteriorated relations with the Indian security and diplomatic machinery can be brought back on track. But on the other hand, four senior and highly sensitive officers of the Bangladeshi army and administration have left for Beijing, where they are engaged in secret talks with China’s military and intelligence masters. This dual diplomacy of simultaneously engaging the country’s two biggest neighbors and arch rival superpowers—India and China—clearly indicates that the new interim or ruling dispensation in Dhaka is still going through a period of deep confusion and opportunistic politics.
Compulsion to melt the ice in relations with India and visit Delhi
For Bangladesh, India has been not just a neighbor but the biggest and essential lifeline of its economy, energy needs, trade and supply chain. Dhaka’s economy has suffered huge losses due to the sourness and bitterness in India-Bangladesh relations in the last few months. Understanding this grave reality, the top chief of Bangladeshi intelligence agency has made a secret and important visit to New Delhi without any big media noise. The main objective of this high-level visit is to restore mutual trust between the security apparatus of the two countries, start joint exchange of intelligence and reduce the increasing tension in the border areas. Strategic analysts in Delhi believe that the present dispensation in Bangladesh has well understood that it is impossible to bring stability in the country by completely ignoring India, and that is why they have been forced to find a way for compromise and dialogue on the diplomatic front.
4 senior officials sent to Beijing: a ploy to put pieces in China’s court
On one hand, while the intelligence chief is trying to assure India in Delhi that Bangladesh respects bilateral sovereignty, on the other hand, the arrival of a special team of four high officials in Beijing at the same time raises many big and serious questions. China has long been building a web of billion-dollar infrastructure projects, port development and supply of military equipment to increase its strategic influence in Bangladesh. The agenda of these four officials going to Beijing is entirely to deepen strategic, military and technological cooperation with China. Analysts say that this dual move of Dhaka is a part of this old diplomatic strategy, under which they cannot distance themselves from India due to economic and geographical compulsions, but by bowing to China’s financial help and strategic pressure, they want to keep their strategic loyalty hostage in the court of Beijing.
This dangerous balancing game of Bangladesh in the geopolitics of South Asia
In this sensitive geopolitical scenario of South Asia, this ‘balancing act’ of Bangladesh has become a new headache for the stability of the region. For any country, this kind of dual diplomacy between two superpowers can give short-term benefits, but in the long run it can prove to be extremely dangerous for the country. India is extremely sensitive about the security on its northern and eastern borders, especially with regard to the security of the North-Eastern states, Dhaka’s stance is very important for India. If Bangladesh tries to promote anti-India activities or strategic intrusions at the behest of China, then New Delhi will not shy away from adopting a stance of strict and clear economic and strategic sanctions. On the other hand, China never helps for free and is trying to strengthen its naval presence in the Bay of Bengal by trapping Bangladesh in its ‘debt trap’, which itself can become a major threat to the sovereignty of Dhaka in the future.
Bangladesh embroiled between India and China, what will be the consequences in the coming days
Overall, the visit of Bangladesh’s intelligence agency chief to Delhi and the visit of four officials to Beijing is irrefutable proof that the rulers of Dhaka are currently victims of a terrible diplomatic dilemma and opportunism. At the same time, they want to maintain trade and security relations with India and are not able to get out of the greed for China’s money and weapons. But this type of double boat ride cannot last long in international politics. India has always supported Bangladesh in every crisis under the Neighbor First policy, but if the government there does not bring clarity in its diplomacy and tries to influence India’s security interests through China, then New Delhi is fully capable of giving a befitting and decisive reply to this double game. The coming few weeks will decide where Bangladesh goes with its wavering and manipulative policies and on which side the camel of regional diplomacy sits.