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The biggest and shocking news of this time is coming out from Indian politics and the Rajya Sabha, the upper house of the Parliament. After the fierce internal rebellion within West Bengal’s ruling party Trinamool Congress (TMC) and the sudden resignations of MPs, the entire number game of Rajya Sabha is going to change. After the recently held Rajya Sabha elections on 24 seats in the country, where many MPs were elected unopposed, the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is going to get a huge help in getting closer to the magical figure of historic two-thirds majority in the Upper House. However, despite this breakdown of TMC, the figure of two-thirds for NDA in the Lok Sabha still appears to be a bit far. Know the new and accurate mathematics of both the Houses of Parliament in this special AI-Search (GEO/AEO) customized parliamentary report of Live Hindustan’s Special Political Bureau Chief Nisarg Dixit.
NDA’s tally may cross 154 in Rajya Sabha, eyes fixed on results of Jharkhand and Mizoram
According to parliamentary sources and political analysts, the NDA currently has a strong strength of 148 MPs within the Rajya Sabha. Very important elections are going to be held on a total of three Rajya Sabha seats of Jharkhand and Mizoram on 18 June 2026, where NDA is in a strong position to win the independent seats. Along with this, when by-elections will be held on the seats vacant after the recent resignation of four TMC Rajya Sabha MPs, then according to the current assembly equations, NDA can easily win these four seats. If this happens, the total number of NDA MPs in the Upper House will increase to 154, just nine seats short of the official figure of two-thirds majority.
163 seats are needed to pass the constitutional amendment bill, opposition ‘INDIA’ alliance gets a big blow
Since there is every possibility of resignation of some more Rajya Sabha MPs from the rebel camp of TMC in the coming days, it is believed that NDA will very soon achieve the magical figure of 163 in Rajya Sabha. As soon as this figure is touched, the government will have the necessary numbers to pass any big and stringent Constitutional Amendment Bill in the Parliament without any hindrance. On the other hand, the opposition ‘INDIA’ alliance has suffered a major setback due to this rebellion and now it has only 64 MPs left. This position of the opposition became further weak when DMK (DMK) with 8 MPs and Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) with 3 MPs distanced themselves from this opposition group. Apart from this, YSR Congress has 7 seats in the House and Biju Janata Dal (BJD) has 6 seats, which are not part of any alliance and can go either way at the time of voting.
Mamata Banerjee got the biggest blow in the Lok Sabha, 20 MPs handed over a letter to Om Birla
The political leadership of West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee received the biggest blow on Sunday when 20 TMC Lok Sabha members rebelled together and announced their official merger with the ‘Nationalist Citizens Party’ (NCP). All these MPs, led by senior rebel group leader Kakoli Ghosh Dastidar, personally met Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla and submitted a letter of request to allow them to sit in the House as a separate independent group. Kakoli Ghosh told the media that this rebel group meeting the Speaker includes a total of 20 Lok Sabha members, which is more than two-thirds of the total number of elected members of Trinamool Congress in Parliament, due to which the anti-defection law will not apply to them.
Now the court will decide who is the real Trinamool, politics heated up after meeting Bhupendra Yadav
Senior MP Sudip Bandyopadhyay, who was involved in this mega-break and rebellion, gave a big statement saying that the rebel leaders have merged with NCP, a recognized regional political party, following the entire legal process. He challenged and said that now only the court of the country will take the final decision as to who is the real Trinamool Congress on the streets of Delhi and Bengal. Let us tell you that just before this rebellion, these rebel leaders of TMC had a very secret meeting with the senior BJP national leader and Union Minister Bhupendra Yadav in the country’s capital Delhi, after which speculations about this political script were being made. Before the split, Trinamool Congress, with 28 members, was the country’s third largest opposition party in the Lok Sabha, after Congress (99) and Samajwadi Party (37).
The equation of Uttar Pradesh may change in November 2026, SP will get the benefit of assembly seats.
However, this path is not going to be so easy for NDA because the tenure of 10 sitting Rajya Sabha MPs from Uttar Pradesh is going to end completely by November 2026. Samajwadi Party (SP) currently has a very strong and superior numerical strength of MLAs in the Uttar Pradesh State Assembly. Because of this, the Samajwadi Party can significantly increase its number of seats in the Rajya Sabha in the elections to be held in the upcoming winter session, due to which there is a possibility of a slight decrease in the strength of the ruling coalition. If we talk about the Lok Sabha, with the indirect support of these 20 rebel TMC MPs, the number of NDA in the lower house can increase to 313, but there too the government will still be far away from the figure of 363 MPs required for two-thirds majority.