Parliament’s numbers game: Will NDA be able to bring a constitutional amendment bill in the monsoon session, know the latest mathematics of both the houses.

With the monsoon session of Parliament starting from July 18, the hustle and bustle in the political circles has intensified. There is talk that the government may once again take steps towards bringing a Constitution Amendment Bill. Although it has not been officially confirmed, the arithmetic of numbers in Parliament will decide the success of this big decision. Constitutional amendment requires a two-thirds majority, which remains a major challenge for the ruling NDA.

What is the position of NDA in Lok Sabha?

There are a total of 543 seats in the Lok Sabha, out of which three seats (Basirhat, Shillong and Naugaon) are currently vacant. In this situation the figure of two-thirds majority is 360. NDA had 293 seats after the 2024 results, but now after the support of some other parties, this number has increased to 319. If parties like DMK abstain from voting at crucial times, the magic figure of majority may come down to 342. Nevertheless, this figure still appears to be some way off the target for the NDA.

Seat share of top 10 parties in Parliament

In terms of numerical strength, the position of parties in Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha is as follows:

Strength and challenge of NDA in Rajya Sabha

There are currently 242 MPs in the Upper House (Rajya Sabha). Here 164 seats are required for constitutional amendment. NDA is in a stronger position in Rajya Sabha than in Lok Sabha, yet it needs the support of other parties for two-thirds majority. BJP has 114 members here, which makes it the largest party in the House, but settling the mathematics for majority is still challenging.

Decision on rebels and new strategy of opposition

Before the start of the monsoon session, the issue of disqualification of rebel MPs of TMC and Shiv Sena (UBT) is important for Lok Sabha Speaker Om Birla. Discussions are ongoing with legal experts so that any decision is constitutionally sound. At the same time, amid the changing equations in Tamil Nadu, DMK has requested to sit separately from Congress in Parliament, which further makes the rift in the India alliance clear. All these developments are sure to have a direct impact on legislative work during the session.