Grand fight on 5th seat: Will Tejashwi and Owaisi come together or will NDA win:

News India Live, Digital Desk: This is the first major test of strength after Bihar Assembly elections 2025. According to numerical strength in the assembly of 243 members NDA (202 MLAs) Has a clear majority to win 4 seats. but the opposition Mahabandhan (35 MLAs) And other small parties (5 MLAs of AIMIM and 1 MLA of BSP) are together trying to spoil the game on the fifth seat.

1. Mathematics of victory: figure of 41

To win a Rajya Sabha seat in Bihar at least 41 first preference votes is required.

NDA status: NDA has 202 MLAs. After winning 4 seats (41 × 4 = 164), he had 38 votes Will be saved. To win the fifth seat he only had to 3 extra votes Is required.

Status of Grand Alliance: RJD, Congress and Left parties have a total of 35 MLAs. To save at least one seat 6 extra votes is sought. [1.4, 4.3]

2. Owaisi and Mayawati in the role of ‘king makers’

For the opposition, the entire onus is on those 6 MLAs who are not part of the Grand Alliance:

AIMIM (5 MLAs): Asaduddin Owaisi’s party has made the game interesting. State President Akhtarul Iman has indicated that he may field his own candidate or seek support from RJD ‘in return’.

BSP (1 MLA): Tejashwi Yadav has his eyes on Mayawati’s only MLA Satish Yadav.

IIP (1 MLA): IIP MLAs who have an independent stance will also be decisive. [1.4, 3.1]

3. Two ways before the opposition: ‘Surrender’ or ‘Struggle’?

At present the opposition seems to have only two options:

Strategy A (Solidarity): If RJD, Congress, Left, AIMIM and BSP come together, they will have a total 41 votes Will become (35 + 5 + 1). In this situation the opposition can easily win one seat.

Strategy B (Fragmentation): If there is no agreement between Owaisi and Tejashwi, it will be very easy for NDA to capture the fifth seat. [1.4, 4.5]

4. NDA’s ‘Problem of Plenty’

While the opposition is fighting for survival, the NDA has a long line of candidates:

JDU: The tenure of Ramnath Thakur and Harivansh Narayan Singh is coming to an end. The party can retain them.

BJP: BJP can send Pawan Singh (Bhojpuri actor) or any backward class face from its quota.

Chirag and Kushwaha: Chirag Paswan, his mother Reena Paswan and Upendra Kushwaha are staking their claim for themselves or their son. [2.2, 2.4]