An attempt to revive SAARC or a new diplomatic chessboard against India?


Amid the changing political scenario of South Asia, President of Maldives Dr. Mohammed Muizzu is arriving in Islamabad on a three-day official state visit. This is the first visit of a Maldivian President to Pakistan in the last 11 years. This historic visit has intensified diplomatic activity in the entire South Asian region. The biggest question being raised in political circles and among foreign policy analysts is whether this visit is an attempt to revive the long-dormant South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC), or is it a new strategy to balance India’s influence in the Indian Ocean region?

Big stake on bilateral relations and restoration of SAARC

Issues like trade, defense cooperation, maritime security, tourism and climate change are the focus of President Muizzu’s visit to Pakistan. Both the countries are about to sign several bilateral agreements (MoUs) to give a new dimension to their 60 years of diplomatic relations. However, beyond these agreements, the aspect attracting the most attention is the issue of regional cooperation.

In recent months, countries such as the Maldives and Bangladesh have called for the resumption of SAARC meetings and prioritizing regional cooperation. The SAARC summits have been stalled for a long time, and the Pakistan visit is being seen as a concrete diplomatic initiative to revive SAARC after Muizzu expressed his desire to activate regional forums.

What are the strategic implications from India’s point of view?

This development is considered quite sensitive from the point of view of India’s foreign policy. India has always given priority to regional cooperation and connectivity, but has always taken a tough stance on Pakistan’s participation in SAARC meetings due to the challenges of cross-border terrorism. India has been emphasizing on strengthening economic and strategic relations with its neighboring countries through alternative regional forums like BIMSTEC.

The policies of the current government of Maldives have been in the news in the past for the ‘India Out’ campaign and their inclination towards China. In such a situation, talks with Islamabad on sensitive topics like defense and maritime intelligence sharing can increase India’s security concerns. However, in recent times ML has also made efforts to balance its relations with New Delhi. Despite this, the growing strategic rapprochement between Pakistan and Maldives could impact the geopolitical balance of power in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).

Regional security and future scenario

During this visit, ‘Pakistan-Maldives Business Forum’ is also being organised, in which both the countries will consider new sea routes connecting Karachi and Gwadar with Male. It will be important to see whether both the countries are able to strengthen economic ties as well as garner the support of other South Asian nations on the issue of SAARC.

Experts believe that the future of SAARC in South Asia will depend on how regional security, terrorism and diplomatic differences are resolved. Whether this visit is just a strategic coordination between the two countries or a new turn in South Asian politics, the coming days will decide.