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Tension in West Asia (Middle East) has once again reached an explosive point. The fear of military conflict in the region has reached its peak after the Saudi Arabia-led military coalition gave a strict ultimatum to evacuate oil depots and fuel storage centers located in Yemen’s capital Sanaa and Red Sea coastal areas. Coalition forces have issued a clear warning that Houthi rebels are using these energy and fuel storage bases as military logistics for ballistic missiles and drone attacks, so civilians should immediately maintain a safe distance from these oil facilities and related complexes. This ultimatum is being seen as a direct preparation for a major and devastating air attack on the ground.
Within a few hours of the Saudi coalition’s ultimatum, Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels have adopted a very aggressive attitude and issued an open threat. The Houthi military spokesperson has issued an official statement saying that if any civilian or oil depot in Sanaa or Yemen is attacked, a direct and terrible response will be given to the oil bases, which are considered the lifeline of Saudi Arabia. The Houthis have made direct threats to target Saudi Aramco’s headquarters in Dammam, Riyadh’s oil refinery and King Khalid International Airport with their long-range cruise missiles and suicide drones. The Houthi leadership made it clear that under the policy of ‘oil for oil’, Saudi Arabia’s major economic infrastructure would be destroyed in the blink of an eye.
The sharpest standoff between the two sides is being witnessed over Hodeidah province and Ras Isa oil terminal located at the strategic mouth of the Red Sea. The port and its fuel terminal have been the main hub for the supply of petroleum products to large parts of Yemen. Coalition intelligence reports claim Houthi rebels are operating explosive-laden unmanned vessels (USVs) and naval mines from Ras Isa and nearby coastal depots, posing a serious threat to international merchant vessels transiting the Red Sea. Oil tankers and crews have been put on alert in these coastal areas in view of possible air attacks.
This new show of force between Saudi Arabia and Yemen’s Houthis has created a sudden stir in the global crude oil market. The threat of attacks on the facilities of Saudi Aramco, the world’s largest oil exporter, has increased pressure on the prices of international benchmark Brent crude. Analysts believe that if any incidents like the drone attacks on Aramco’s Abqaiq and Khurais plants in 2019 are repeated, the global energy supply chain could completely collapse. The Red Sea waterway was already unsafe for merchant shipping, and now the threat of direct bombardment of oil depots made shipping freight and war risk insurance premiums even more expensive.
Efforts were being made by the United Nations (UN) and regional mediators to maintain the ceasefire between the two sides for the past few months, but recent incidents have completely derailed the peace talks. Civil authorities in Sanaa have issued sirens and precautionary instructions in residential areas around the oil depot, while Saudi Arabia’s air defense systems (Patriot missile batteries) have been deployed on high-alert in border and industrial areas. According to defense experts, if the Saudi coalition’s ultimatum translates into air strikes in the coming hours, the Houthis’ retaliatory strike could throw the entire Arabian Peninsula into a long and destructive conflict.