In the battle for supremacy between MBS and MBZ, UAE’s eviction from Yemen has proved costly, will Saudi Arabia become bankrupt?

There is currently a turmoil in the geopolitical corridors of the Middle East which has exposed the mutual relations between the two most powerful countries of the Gulf – Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE). The ongoing tussle over diplomatic and regional supremacy between Saudi Arabia’s Wali Ahad i.e. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) and UAE President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MBZ) is now becoming a dilemma for Riyadh. Experts believe that Prince Salman has made a major strategic mistake in trying to humiliate the UAE and exclude it from the strategic affairs of Yemen, as a result of which the Iran-backed Houthi rebels have got immense gains near the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait. Now Saudi Arabia’s economy, national security and oil wealth are directly bearing the brunt of this political and diplomatic trick played in the battlefield of Yemen, due to which the question has started gaining momentum that will this increasing terror of Houthis economically destroy the Saudi Kingdom?

The script of this entire crisis was written when Saudi Crown Prince MBS started adopting aggressive policies against the UAE in the race to establish his economic and strategic dominance in the Gulf region. To challenge Dubai’s growing influence in the field of global trade and aviation, Saudi Arabia started investing trillions of dollars under Vision 2030, the effect of which was clearly visible on the bilateral relations between the two countries. Under this personal and strategic ambition, MBS began to weaken the UAE-backed Southern Transitional Council (STC) and local forces within Yemen, which were actually considered the only strong wall stopping the Houthi rebels in southern Yemen. This decision by the Saudi Air Force to carry out airstrikes on its own allies and bypassing the local leadership hollowed out Yemen’s defense system from within. When UAE-backed forces and other local forces got entangled among themselves, Iran-backed Houthis took direct advantage of this and launched swift attacks and captured the strategically important Mocha port and the Red Sea coastal areas.

The establishment of Houthi rebels’ control over the important chokepoint of the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandeb through Yemen is no less than a major threat for the entire world as well as Saudi Arabia in particular. This is the same sea route through which a very large fleet of oil and merchant ships of the world passes. Whereas earlier the local forces formed with the cooperation of UAE used to keep these rebels confined within their borders, now due to Saudi policies, those forces have either scattered or have left the field and retreated. As a result, the Houthis have begun directly targeting Saudi Arabia’s mainland and its oil assets using modern drones and missiles. After the recent Houthi attacks, Saudi Arabia also had to close its 1200 km long East-West oil pipeline as a precautionary measure. Strategic experts say that if this situation continues for a long time, Saudi Arabia’s oil exports and the backbone of its economy may suffer a severe blow, plunging the country into a huge financial crisis.

When surrounded from all sides due to his own strategic mistakes, Crown Prince MBS contacted US President Donald Trump and strongly appealed for direct military intervention and air strikes against the Houthis. The Saudi leadership fully expected that America would take direct military action in its support as usual, but Riyadh has received a major blow from Washington. The US administration has flatly refused to directly enter the battlefield or launch a comprehensive military operation against the Houthis. However, the US has agreed to provide only intelligence sharing and limited targeting data to Saudi Arabia, so that the Saudi army can defend itself. Saudi Arabia is now feeling largely alone on the diplomatic front due to lack of expected help from Pakistan and other regional allies, which is giving sleepless nights to the policy makers in Riyadh.

Nowadays, the battlefield of Yemen has become such a quagmire for Saudi Arabia that getting out of it is no less than a litmus test for Prince Salman. On one hand, money is being spent like water on mega projects under Vision 2030 within the country, while on the other hand, billions of dollars are being spent to deal with regional wars and Houthi missile attacks. If the Houthis’ dominance in the Red Sea continues to increase and oil supplies to the international market are disrupted, the growth rate of the Saudi economy could be severely affected. Experts believe that if MBS does not give up his stubbornness and the ongoing ego battle with the UAE and adopt the path of collective diplomacy for regional stability, then this conflict could push Saudi Arabia towards huge economic ruin in the long run. The coming time will decide how Riyadh comes out of this diplomatic crisis and whether the two giant Gulf countries are able to forget their differences and deal with this common threat or not.