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In terms of strategy and security of West Asia, a very shocking news is coming out, where Yemen’s civil war has once again reached the most horrific and destructive turn. Iran-backed Houthi rebels have advanced rapidly towards Yemen’s temporary capital ‘Aden’, dealing a major blow to the Saudi Arabia-led military coalition. Due to this rapid military movement in the last few days, Houthi rebels have come very close to the city of Aden and are directly threatening the existence of the internationally recognized Saudi-backed government. The state-of-the-art Saudi army of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) and their powerful air support are also proving to be completely unsuccessful in stopping this unexpected aggression of Houthi fighters. There has been panic in the entire area after the continuous missile and drone attacks around Aden Airport and Rashtrapati Bhavan. In today’s special analytical report, we will understand in depth what suddenly happened on the Yemen front, how the Houthi fighters reached Aden and what impact this big reversal will have on the peace of the entire Middle East and global shipping routes.
If we look at the strategic location of Yemen and the map of the Red Sea, the city of Aden is not just an administrative capital, but it is the most important coastal and economic center of the country. When Houthi rebels captured the country’s capital Sanaa in 2014-15, the government was forced to conduct its activities from Aden itself. However, Houthi fighters have now completely surrounded the strategically important coastal areas and areas around the city of Taiz and have consolidated their positions just a few kilometers from Aden. This is the first time since the beginning of the Yemen war in 2015 that the Houthi rebels have made such a huge advance and reached straight to the doorstep of Aden. According to local sources, Houthi rebels have shattered the defense lines of Saudi-backed government forces by using a combination of heavy fire, long-range ballistic missiles and suicide drones. After the Aden airport was targeted, flight operations had to be stopped, leaving Aden city almost cut off from the rest of the country.
This entire incident has raised serious questions on Saudi Arabia’s military leadership and the strategic plans of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS). Saudi Arabia has bought billions of dollars worth of American and European sophisticated weapons over the past decade and has led a massive military coalition in Yemen to protect the government it supports. Despite this, the ground reality is that even after heavy aerial bombardment by the Saudi coalition, the morale of the Houthi fighters could not be defeated. Experts believe that the Houthi rebels are very adept in guerrilla warfare (Ghanimi war) and they are taking full advantage of the hills and difficult geographical areas. On the other hand, internal factionalism within Saudi-backed government forces, the lack of coordination between southern separatists (STC) and loyalist forces has made the task of the Houthi rebels extremely easy. Despite the air strikes by the Saudi Air Force, the supply line of the Houthi fighters could not be completely cut, as a result of which the fighters reached straight to the border of Aden.
The impact of this rapid advance of Houthi rebels towards Aden is not going to be limited only to the borders of Yemen, but it will have a direct impact on international trade and movement of sea vessels. The Gulf of Aden and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait are the world’s busiest and most important maritime waterways, carrying the majority of global oil and cargo traffic. Houthi fighters have already been targeting international merchant ships in the Red Sea and now if they gain dominance or direct control over Aden, the entire sea route will come in direct range of their missiles and drones. Due to this, global trade through the Suez Canal can be completely affected, due to which there is a danger of a huge jump in the prices of crude oil in the international market and a huge increase in the cost of freight transportation. America and western countries are extremely concerned about this situation because the security of this waterway has been a big priority for them.
Looking at the current situation in Yemen, it would not be wrong to say that the previous ceasefire brokered by the United Nations (UN) has now completely collapsed and Yemen has moved towards a terrible humanitarian and political crisis. If Saudi Arabia and its military coalition fail to push back this advance of the Houthi rebels in the next few hours or days, the government sitting in Aden may be forced to flee the country or seek refuge in a third place. This will not only increase Iran’s influence in Yemen unprecedentedly, but will also jeopardize the security of Saudi Arabia’s southern borders. Human rights organizations have warned that due to the ongoing conflict in Aden and surrounding areas, millions of civilians are being displaced and there is a severe shortage of food, water and medicines in the country. The coming few days are going to prove to be very decisive in deciding the future of Yemen and the balance of power of the entire Middle East.