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Voting for the fourth phase of Lok Sabha elections took place on 13 May. Then there are some states in which voting has been completed. Rajasthan, Gujarat, Goa, Karnataka are such states where BJP has been dominant for most of the decade. Voting has been completed in these states. Talking about Rajasthan, voting took place on a total of 25 Lok Sabha seats in the first and second phases. Recently, various types of discussions and surveys are going on among political circles and informants regarding the results of these meetings.
Hat-trick of clean sweep difficult for BJP in Rajasthan
Rajasthan is a state where the mandate changes in the assembly elections every five years. This has not been seen in the Lok Sabha elections. If we look at the last four Lok Sabha elections, the votes have been more in favor of BJP. At the same time, some political pundits believe that BJP will make a clean sweep this time too and score a hat-trick of victories. On the other hand, experts who know the local issues and local situation believe that it will be difficult for BJP to make a hat-trick of clean sweep this time. According to experts, there are at least 10 seats where local issues can be widely effective. In such a situation, Congress seems to be benefiting. Till now BJP has a huge vote share margin of 25 percent, which is finding it a bit difficult for Congress to break. But Congress is giving tough competition on some seats. Suppose even six-seven seats out of 10 go to Congress, then it will be harmful for BJP.
Resentment of different communities can have an impact
If we look at the caste equation of Rajasthan, about 31 percent of the population here is of SC-ST. Due to this he becomes the kingmaker on the seats. Apart from this, the problems of Jat and Rajput society are seen the most in every election. The big change this time is that Hanuman Beniwal has left NDA and joined Congress. This time he is supporting India alliance. With this, Congress is expected to get more votes from the Jat community. Apart from this, Congress wants to count the votes of Gurjars at the behest of Sachin Payal. Apart from this, farmers are angry with the present government and they are also carrying out agitations from time to time. Congress can also benefit from these movements. In such a situation, the resentment of various communities is pointing towards the possibility of loss for BJP and NDA and gain for Congress on some seats. In view of this, the change in seats cannot be ignored.
BJP remained dominant in the last two decades except 2009.
No matter how much turmoil is there in the Assembly in Rajasthan and seats are changing or decreasing, people in the Lok Sabha have mostly given preference to BJP. BJP has dominated in five Lok Sabha elections from 1999 to 2019. Only in the 2009 elections did the Congress win more seats, while the BJP led by a larger margin. In the 1999 elections, BJP and its allies won 16 seats. Won 21 seats in 2004. BJP did not win in the 2009 Lok Sabha and Congress won 20 seats. Then with the rise of Modi era in BJP, the people of Rajasthan voted enthusiastically. In the last two Lok Sabha elections i.e. 2014 and 2019, BJP got 25 i.e. all the seats. Due to this, on one hand BJP is hoping for a clean sweep for the third time and on the other hand Congress is hoping to open its account.
BJP will benefit from more women voting
After caste politics, if we look at the situation of male and female voters, then a different picture is seen in Rajasthan. The situation was different in the early days of democracy in Rajasthan and now it has completely changed. In a male-dominated society, women are now presenting their existence in a different way and are also representing themselves. Women are no longer just stay-at-home people. She has become a modern woman who comes out of the kitchen to see and understand the world. In the last decade, the equations of voting have changed due to the schemes brought by the Central Government for women, operations done and benefits given. Women are also voting in greater numbers than men. Previous results show that the BJP has benefited from the increasing and higher voting percentage of women. BJP has been strong in attracting and wooing women and youth voters. So he has benefited. If we talk about the last Lok Sabha, in Rajasthan, 66.5 percent female voters voted compared to 66.2 percent male voters.
About two seats each from Churu, Sikar and Jhunjhuna will go to Congress's account.
Political analysts believe that the Jat community was angry with the government on many issues. But now the Rajput community has also taken up arms against the government. Especially after the Rupala incident, the Kshatriya community seems to be angry with BJP. Looking at this it seems that it can have a big impact on the communal politics of Rajasthan. According to political pundits, Churu, Sikar and Jhunj are three seats in Shekhawati belt. If people from its Rajput community vote anti-BJP or make even a slight change, BJP may lose at least two out of three seats. On the other hand, Gurjar votes can also impact this election. The reason for this is that Gujra people were in support of BJP during the assembly elections. Many Gurjar leaders have done great political work. Recently, Gujjars played an important role in BJP's victory in the assembly. Subsequently, the Gurjar community is also widely angry over the government's failure to give proper representation to the Gurjars.
BJP's seats may fall: Top leader admitted
There is no indication that this time BJP will get 25 out of 25 seats in Rajasthan. There is talk in political circles that BJP's seats are decreasing. This time BJP is likely to face setbacks on local issues including caste issues, inflation, unemployment and reservation and farmers' issues. In such a situation, a top BJP leader said that this time it is difficult for BJP to get all the seats. BJP may lose 1-2 seats. Importantly, local issues and sometimes community pressure can change the outcome. This statement of the top leader had a deep impact in political circles.
The difference in voting percentage is huge
There has been a huge difference in the figures and percentage of the results of the Modi wave that has swept the country in the last decade. It is very difficult for Congress to make this distinction. BJP has got huge votes in the last two Lok Sabha elections in Rajasthan. In 2014, BJP got 55 percent votes and Congress got 30 percent votes. In 2019, Congress's vote share was 34 percent, while BJP's vote share was 61 percent. The difference of more than 25 percent in vote share between the two parties is huge. Even if Congress gets a chance to reduce the gap by 10 percent, it will be able to win only 4 seats. 37 percent votes in the country were cast in the name of Modi. Whereas in Rajasthan this figure was 49 percent. The surprising thing is that one out of every three people in the country is found voting only because of Prime Minister Narendra Modi. This figure is of every second person in Rajasthan. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is currently the face of BJP and the face of every candidate is also Prime Minister Modi. In Rajasthan, Prime Minister Modi's presence, Prime Minister Modi's meeting and Prime Minister Modi's face are getting more votes than any other candidate. This cannot be ignored at all.