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Dubai The record breaking rainfall this week has shocked the world. Located in the Arabian Desert, one of the fastest growing cities, known for its tall buildings and lavish infrastructure, has been hit by devastating floods due to torrential rains.
According to the National Meteorological Center of the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the city recorded one and a half year's rainfall in a matter of hours. Al Ain city received 254 mm of rain in less than 24 hours on Tuesday – the highest since records began.
Meteorologists say the rain was caused by a high-intensity storm passing over the region – these systems originate in the Mediterranean Sea and move east. However, this time, it spread unusually far south.
Severe storm caused by global warming?
“There was a mid-latitude western trough from the Mediterranean Sea which became so strong that it even moved southwards towards the UAE. Normally, it affects the upper reaches of Afghanistan, Pakistan, Kashmir, Himachal and Uttarakhand, close to Tibet, but it moved unusually far to the south. So the rains in Dubai were preceded by floods in Oman and nearby Saudi Arabia,” said Dr KJ Ramesh, former head of the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
The storm was further boosted by additional moisture from the Arabian Sea, causing excessive rainfall in Bahrain and Qatar.
But this is clearly not an isolated incident. Extreme weather events, particularly short-lived torrential rainfall events, have intensified globally, leading to devastating floods.
Huge amounts of greenhouse emissions into the atmosphere by human-led activities have caused global temperatures to rise, with the world already 1.1℃ warmer.
“Whatever the reason, it is certain that global warming has intensified the occurrence of heavy rainfall events. Although the total number of rainy days is less, the amount of rain on those days has increased significantly. This is because the warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, and sustain stronger, darker clouds for longer periods of time, leading to sudden downpours,” said the senior atmospheric scientist.
Cloud seeding gone wrong?
Experts have also addressed the broader debate over whether the current rainfall event was inadvertently increased due to artificial cloud seeding. It is a scientific method of modifying the weather by spreading large salt particles into convective clouds via an aircraft to increase overall rainfall. The UAE's National Meteorological Center was one of the first centers in the Arabian Gulf region to use cloud seeding and has been using it for more than a decade to enhance rainfall. This is done using a private airplane supplied by special salt flares manufactured to suit the nature of the physical and chemical properties of the clouds that form in the UAE.
According to Sachchida Nand Tripathi, professor in the department of civil engineering at IIT Kanpur, who has also been associated with cloud seeding experiments in India, it is highly unlikely that such an exercise would have caused rainfall. One reason for this is that artificial seeding is performed during the early stages of cloud development. But if the storm is well developed, sowing seeds is generally not recommended.
“Globally, there is consensus among scientific agencies that cloud seeding can increase rainfall by 15 to 25%. So if we go by this data then it will still be raining heavily in Dubai. Therefore, it is highly unlikely that this event can be attributed to seeding,” Professor Tripathi said. “In addition, artificial seeding aims to manually alter the natural growth of clouds to increase precipitation. Many times we see in arid and semi-arid areas that clouds are formed but they do not produce enough rain, so this technology can be helpful.
Several states in India, including Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu, have also used this technology to generate rain in semi-arid areas.
Recently, the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT) Kanpur has also completed trials using its seeding equipment and a fully equipped aircraft, and plans to expand it soon.
Increase in extreme weather events globally
The intensity of the rainfall in Dubai is so high that it has devastated the desert city, leaving its existing drainage system struggling to cope. The internet is filled with videos of cars floating on roads, runways flooded and buildings submerged across cities.
The science is clear. Human-induced climate change is set to make such extreme weather events more intense, frequent and destructive in the near future. According to experts, the emphasis now should be on conducting a structural audit of the lifeline infrastructure and making it more resilient to face such incidents.