Is Pakistan moving towards a situation like 1971? Fire of rebellion from Balochistan, Pakhtunkhwa to PoK

In 1971, when the then East Pakistan broke away to form the independent nation of Bangladesh, the world witnessed the partition of a country that was built only on the basis of religion, but could not handle its linguistic and cultural diversity. Today, after more than five decades, history once again appears to be standing at the same turning point. Pakistan is currently facing the most serious multi-dimensional crisis in its history. On one hand, the country is on the verge of bankruptcy and is counting its breath with the help of loans from IMF and friendly countries, while on the other hand, open armed and mass movements against provincial autonomy, caste discrimination and military atrocities have broken out in all four corners of the country. The discussion is gaining momentum among international defense experts, diplomatic analysts and think-tanks as to whether Pakistan, burdened with internal contradictions, can disintegrate into six different pieces in the future.

Those 6 major areas where the fire of independence and partition is burning

Strategic analysts see the current geography of Pakistan as likely to be divided into 6 main landmasses and ethnic boundaries:

1. Balochistan (Dream of Azad Balochistan): Pakistan’s largest province by area (about 44%) but least populous and most neglected province. Despite having immense reserves of natural gas, gold (Reco Dick) and oil, the people here are living in extreme poverty. Insurgent organizations like ‘Balochistan Liberation Army’ (BLA) and ‘Baloch Raji Ajoi Sangar’ (BRAS) are waging a full-scale independence war against the Pakistani army and Chinese CPEC projects. Peaceful but massive civil demonstrations by the ‘Baloch Yakjehti Committee’ (BYC) led by Mehrang Baloch have practically isolated Balochistan from Islamabad’s control.

2. Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (Pakhtunistan or Greater Afghanistan): In this Pashtun-dominated province, Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) has waged a parallel war against Pakistani security forces. The army’s control is being directly challenged in the tribal areas. On the other hand, ‘Pashtun Tahaffuz Movement’ (PTM) is openly raising the slogan of ‘Lar O Bar You Afghan’ (A Pashtun Nation across the Durand Line) against military operations, fake encounters and oppression of Pashtuns.

3. Sindh (Demand for ‘Sindhudesh’): ‘Sindhudesh Revolutionary Army’ (SRA) and nationalist parties inspired by the ideology of GM Syed are active in Karachi and Sindh province, which is called the economic engine of Pakistan. The people of Sindh allege that Punjab loots their Indus river water, agricultural wealth and 70% of the taxes, while the rural areas of Sindh do not even have basic facilities.

4. Illegally occupied Kashmir (PoJK) of Pakistan: In the last two years, the people of PoK have waged an unprecedented civil rebellion against the Pakistani government and army. Lakhs of people have taken to the streets under the banner of ‘Awami Action Committee’ against huge electricity bills, ending subsidy on wheat and plunder of natural resources. Slogans of anti-Pakistan and opening of trade routes with India are being raised openly in the protests.

5. Gilgit-Baltistan: This strategically important Shia-majority region has been enslaved by Pakistan for decades without any constitutional status. Due to land acquisition, conspiracy to change religious demography and violation of civil rights, voices demanding merger of Ladakh and India are becoming increasingly vocal in Gilgit-Baltistan.

6. Punjab and Saraiki region (Saraikistan / Residual Pakistan): The country’s politics, army and resources are controlled only by the elite class of ‘Central and North Punjab’. In protest against this, the Sindhi and Seraiki speaking people of South Punjab have been demanding a separate ‘Seraiki Province’ for a long time. If the remaining provinces secede, Pakistan will remain only a limited ‘Republic of Punjab’.

The spark of rebellion burning from Balochistan to Pakhtunkhwa: Why is it not learning from the mistakes of 1971?

The biggest reason for the separation of East Pakistan (Bangladesh) in 1971 was that the Punjabi-dominated army of West Pakistan carried out a barbaric massacre like ‘Operation Searchlight’ to crush the democratic mandate of Bengali citizens. The exact same mistake is being repeated today by the Military Headquarters (GHQ) Rawalpindi in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Enforced disappearances of thousands of youth in Balochistan, extra-judicial killings and lathicharge on women have inspired every section of the Baloch society to take up arms or complete secession. Similarly, looking at the Pashtuns living on the Afghan border with suspicion and continuously carrying out drone and air strikes there has filled the local people with deep hatred towards the Pakistani Army. When states start attacking their own people with tanks, cannons and fighter jets, the geographical integrity of that nation cannot last long.

Economic bankruptcy and uncontrolled military plunder: the final nail in the coffin.

Economic stability is the biggest backbone to keep any country united. Pakistan’s economy is completely on ventilator today:

• Endless cycle of debt: Pakistan’s total public debt has exceeded 80% of its gross domestic product (GDP). Foreign exchange reserves are so low that the country is able to repay the interest on old loans only by taking new loans.

• ‘Fauji Foundation’ and the business empire of generals: Instead of protecting the country, Pakistani Army is busy running Real Estate (DHA), Fertilizer, Cement, Oil, Banking and Shopping Malls. The country’s defense budget is continuously increasing, while the education and health systems have collapsed.

• Failure of CPEC: China’s ambitious project ‘China-Pakistan Economic Corridor’ (CPEC) has proved to be a strategic colonial trap instead of bringing employment to the local people, causing huge resentment among the local fishermen and traders of Gwadar.

Geopolitical Reality: Is disintegration of Pakistan possible?

According to strategic and defense experts, even though the immediate division of Pakistan into six formally sovereign nations may appear complicated due to international boundaries, internally Pakistan has already ‘de-facto’ disintegrated. Pakistani police or civil administration have no effective control over 60% of the country’s territory (Balochistan and Tribal Pashtun areas); There are only army posts which are under daily attack.

The world’s superpowers (especially the US and China) are wary of Pakistan’s sudden and uncontrolled disintegration, as it is a nuclear-armed country because of the risk of nuclear weapons falling into the hands of terrorist groups. If the Pakistan Army does not immediately stop its political interference, human rights abuses and economic exploitation of other provinces, then nothing will be able to stop this fire of social rebellion and internal civil war from pushing the country towards the inevitable partition.