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These days, in the politics of Jharkhand, everyone’s eyes are focused on the developments in Ranchi rather than Delhi. The elections going to be held for two Rajya Sabha seats in the state have taken a very interesting and suspenseful turn. After getting the green signal for the nomination of the country’s veteran industrialist Parimal Nathwani as an independent candidate, the contest has now become triangular. This one decision has created panic in the ruling coalition, especially the Congress camp. Let us understand in a sequential manner what is the political arithmetic of Jharkhand Assembly which has made the path of Congress candidate Pranab Jha very thorny.
What is the magic figure of victory and the current equation of the assembly?
This time the game of check-mate has started to capture the two Rajya Sabha seats of Jharkhand. According to the current mathematics, any candidate will need the votes of minimum 28 MLAs to directly reach the Upper House on the basis of first preference. If we look at the total seats in the Assembly and the current numerical strength, the ruling ‘India’ alliance appears to have a clear majority, but with the presence of a tall personality like Parimal Nathwani in the fray, this electoral battle is no longer limited to just numbers.
Ruling party’s mathematics: Strong on paper, yet why did Congress’ heartbeats increase?
The ruling alliance led by Jharkhand Mukti Morcha (JMM) and Congress together has the strong support of 56 MLAs. In this sense, technically the alliance can easily make both its candidates win. This time JMM has fielded its Dalit face Baidyanath Ram, while Pranab Jha is the candidate from Congress. Since JMM is the largest party in the Assembly, it is almost certain that Chief Minister Hemant Soren’s party candidate Baidyanath Ram will get 28 first preference votes. The real problem lies with Congress’s Pranab Jha, as he is in direct danger of dispersion of remaining votes or cross-voting.
NDA’s masterstroke: BJP’s strategy and Nathwani’s past track record
On the other hand, the total strength of NDA, including the main opposition Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and its allies (AJSU, JDU, LJP-R), currently reaches 24 MLAs. This number is 4 votes less than the required victory figure (28). For this reason, instead of fielding any official candidate, BJP has strategically given its open support to independent Parimal Nathwani by giving him a walkover. Nathwani needs only 4 extra votes to win. Since Parimal Nathwani has already been an independent Rajya Sabha MP from Jharkhand twice, everyone is aware of his personal influence and ‘management’ ability among the MLAs of all political parties.
Pranav Jha vs Parimal Nathwani: Why is the matter stuck?
The biggest challenge for Congress candidate Pranab Jha is to contain the discontent within his own party and alliance. It is a common discussion in political circles that if Parimal Nathwani takes MLAs from independent, dissident or small parties into his fold, then the game can completely change in the counting of second preference for the second seat. Congress fears that some of its quota votes may slip, which is why Congress leaders were continuously opposing Nathwani’s nomination, fearing horse trading. Now that Nathwani is firmly in the race, Pranab Jha has to work hard to keep his MLAs united between Delhi and Ranchi.