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RBI has There has been no cut in repo rate for the last 2 years. Due to which the increased EMI of the loan is not decreasing. In such a situation, can RBI take any surprising decision this time? Economic experts say that there is little hope for this. Experts say the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) may once again keep the key interest rate unchanged in its bilateral monetary policy review later this week. Due to this, inflation has once again exceeded the RBI target. At the same time, in view of the disappointing GDP growth figures of the second quarter, the central bank may cut the growth estimate. The six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), chaired by the Governor of the Reserve Bank, is scheduled to meet on December 4-6, 2024.
Governor will announce the policy on December 6
Governor Shaktikanta Das will announce the decision of the meeting on December 6. It is generally believed that RBI will soon start cutting key interest rates, but this time the central bank will have less options. Because retail inflation rate is above 6 percent. The Reserve Bank has kept the repo rate or short-term borrowing rate at 6.5% from February 2023. Experts believe that some relief may be available only in February 2025. Madan Sabnavis, Chief Economist of Bank of Baroda, said that the repo rate may remain unchanged in view of the uncertainty in the global environment and the possible impact on inflation.
Growth projections will be reduced
He said there will be changes to RBI’s forecasts for both inflation and GDP, as inflation has so far been higher than RBI’s Q3 forecast and GDP growth in Q2 has been much lower than expected. ICRA Chief Economist Aditi Nair said consumer price inflation is set to exceed six percent in October 2024. In such a situation, it is expected that the MPC will maintain the status quo in the December 2024 meeting. “Also, we expect the MPC to cut its growth forecast for FY 2024-25 next week,” Nair said. If inflation softens further, a rate cut may occur in February 2025.