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As the countdown for the departure of monsoon begins in Uttar Pradesh, the weather has once again taken a turn. For the last few days, suffering from the scorching heat and sticky humidity, people were feeling that the monsoon has calmed down completely, but according to meteorologists, this is the ‘final round’ of the monsoon. India Meteorological Department (IMD) and Zonal Meteorological Center Lucknow, while issuing the latest bulletin, have issued a serious warning of thunder and lightning and gusty winds at a speed of 30 to 40 kilometers per hour in 44 districts of the state. Meteorologists say that this may not be a period of continuous torrential rains, but due to the formation of convective clouds, the incidents of sudden heavy rains and lightning at the local level will be more than normal. This changed weather pattern will bring down the day temperature during the next 48 to 72 hours from Lucknow to the remote districts and Terai areas of Purvanchal, but will also increase the risk of humidity and lightning.
Explaining the scientific circumstances behind the suddenly active monsoon system at this time, senior meteorologist Atul Kumar Singh of Zonal Meteorological Center, Lucknow, said that a clear cyclonic circulation is formed over south-east Rajasthan and northern Gujarat. Along with this, the main axial line of monsoon i.e. Monsoon Trough is once again shifting slightly northwards from its normal position, i.e. towards the foothills of the Himalayas and the plains of Uttar Pradesh. Whenever the monsoon trough shifts north, moist winds coming from both the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea start hitting the atmosphere of Uttar Pradesh. Due to this collision, small pockets of low air pressure are being formed locally. This is the reason why there may not be any warning of widespread heavy rains like floods in any part of the state, but in the districts of Terai, Madhyanchal and Eastern Uttar Pradesh, the conditions for light to moderate rain and strong thunderstorms at many places remain completely favorable for the next two to three days.
According to the detailed list released by the Meteorological Department, 44 districts of the state have been kept in the yellow alert category. Varanasi, Chandauli, Ghazipur, Jaunpur, Azamgarh, Mau, Ballia, Deoria, Gorakhpur, Sant Kabir Nagar, Kushinagar and Maharajganj, which are the major religious and industrial centers of Purvanchal, are expected to experience intermittent cloud movement and showers with thunder till September 20. There is a possibility of strong thunder and lightning in Mirzapur, Sonbhadra, Bhadohi, Prayagraj, Fatehpur, Kaushambi, Banda, Chitrakoot, Mahoba, Hamirpur, Jhansi, Jalaun and Lalitpur of Vindhya and Bundelkhand region. On the other hand, Terai belt districts bordering Nepal like Siddharthnagar, Balrampur, Shravasti, Bahraich, Lakhimpur Kheri, Pilibhit and Sitapur may see several rounds of moderate rain with thundershowers due to the proximity of the monsoon trough. In Lucknow, Barabanki, Unnao, Kanpur Nagar, Kanpur Dehat, Rae Bareli, Amethi and Ayodhya of Central UP, sudden dense dark clouds and heavy showers with lightning are expected in the afternoon.
The real and big turning point in the weather of Uttar Pradesh is going to come from September 19. According to the Meteorological Department, there are limited chances of light to moderate rain and drizzle in the districts of western Uttar Pradesh like Saharanpur, Shamli, Muzaffarnagar, Baghpat, Meerut, Ghaziabad, Hapur, Gautam Buddha Nagar (Noida) and Bulandshahr till September 18. From September 19, the wind direction will completely change in the entire western Uttar Pradesh. The easterly (moist eastern winds) coming from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal will start weakening and will be replaced by dry northwesterly winds coming from the north-west. As soon as the westerly winds become active, the moisture level in the atmosphere will drop rapidly, due to which the sky will become completely clear and the weather will start becoming dry. This change will actually signal the beginning of the official withdrawal of the south-west monsoon. This dry phase, starting from Western UP, will gradually cover the entire Central and Eastern Uttar Pradesh between 22nd to 25th September, after which the sunshine will be intense during the day but the night temperature will start feeling slight coolness i.e. the first whiff of ‘pink winter’.
In view of the activities of this last phase of monsoon, agricultural scientists and meteorological department have issued special agricultural advisory for the farmers of the state. At present, paddy, the main Kharif crop in the fields of Uttar Pradesh, is in the very sensitive stage of ear emergence and grain filling. Agricultural experts say that while on one hand light to moderate rains will act as nectar for the paddy crop and will keep the groundwater level recharged, on the other hand, rains accompanied by thunderstorms and strong winds increase the risk of ripe or ear-laden crops falling into the fields (lodging). Farmers have been advised to stop spraying urea or any kind of chemical pesticide in the fields for the next two-three days in the districts where there is an alert of thunder and lightning. Do not allow excessive waterlogging in the fields and maintain proper drainage system. Apart from this, farmers who have harvested early crops of maize, sesame, urad or moong should keep their harvested produce in secure warehouses or places covered with tarpaulin instead of keeping it in open barns so that the grains do not get damaged due to sudden rains.
The biggest deadly threat during the farewell phase of monsoon is lightning because the cumulonimbus clouds formed by the sudden meeting of hot and cold winds produce huge amounts of static electricity. The State Disaster Management Authority (SDMA) has appealed to citizens of rural and urban areas to take special precautions. During storms and lightning, farmers and laborers working in the fields should immediately take shelter in pucca houses. Do not under any circumstances stand alone under tall trees, tin sheds, ponds filled with water or under electric poles and transformers. Until the thunder stops, avoid driving a two-wheeler and talking while keeping the mobile phone charging in the open. Citizens have been advised to download the Government of India’s ‘Damini’ and ‘Mausam’ apps on their smartphones, which issue warning alerts through audio and message 20 to 30 minutes before lightning based on GPS location. In this ‘final round’, caution and constant monitoring of weather warnings is the biggest guarantee of safety.