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The political calculations on the 80 Lok Sabha seats of UP are becoming clear. According to the trends so far, a close contest is being witnessed between the BJP and SP alliance. The Lok Sabha seats of SP and Congress are increasing while BJP's seats are decreasing. Not only this, the seats of BJP's allies are also decreasing. BSP President Mayawati's gamble of fighting the Lok Sabha elections alone seems to be costly. It is becoming difficult for BSP to open its account while the controversial face of Dalit politics, Samajwadi Pati leader Chandrashekhar Azad is registering victory.
The path to power in the country passes through Uttar Pradesh. BJP was successful in forming the government at the centre in UP in 2014 and 2019, but Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav became an obstacle in 2024. SP and Congress are joining hands to stop BJP's hat-trick of power and seem to be successful. BJP seems to be facing the biggest setback in UP. Where Akhilesh Yadav's PDA formula and Rahul Gandhi's threat to the constitution and reservation seem to be working.
While SP is leading in more than 30 Lok Sabha seats in UP, the number of BJP seats is decreasing. Congress seems to be winning 6 to 7 seats instead of one. At the same time, BJP is leading in 34 seats, in many of which it is leading by a very small margin. BJP's ally RLD is leading in both the seats of its quota, while Apna Dal (S) is stuck on both the seats of its quota, in which Arvind Rajbhar Ghosi, son of Om Prakash Rajbhar of Subhaspa and Praveen Nishad Sant, son of Sanjay Nishad are in the lead. Nishad Party is trailing in Kabir Nagar seat.
In UP, the strategy of Akhilesh Yadav and Rahul Gandhi seems to be prevailing over the social engineering of BJP and its allies. By raising the issue of constitution and reservation, Rahul Gandhi has been successful to a great extent in uniting the Dalit community. Apart from this, not only the steps of conducting caste census but also increasing the limit of reservation by 50 percent have raised hopes among OBCs. At the same time, the PDA formula of backward, Dalit and minority bets of SP President Akhilesh Yadav has become successful. Not only this, the unity of Muslims after the SP-Congress alliance has spoiled the entire game of BJP.
Akhilesh's PDA formula was a huge hit
On this issue, Akhilesh Yadav has tried the PDA formula to break the Yadav-Muslim supporting image of SP. In UP, SP bet on non-Yadav and non-Muslim candidates. This time Akhilesh Yadav fielded only four Muslim and five Yadav candidates in UP. 10 candidates from Kurmi community, 5 from Mallah community and 6 from Kushwaha-Maurya-Shakya contested the election. Apart from this, one candidate was also given from Rajbhar community. Thakurs and Brahmins were given a few tickets. This time, SP experimented with fielding candidates from Dalit community on reserved seats as well as two general category seats. The bet on Kurmi-Shakya-Mall and Dalit community seems to be paying off. With the PDA formula, Akhilesh has defeated BJP's social engineering.
Part of the constitution and reservation
Congress leader Rahul Gandhi raised the issue of constitution and reservation strongly in this Lok Sabha election. Under this pretext, Rahul Gandhi is saying that if BJP comes to power, it will abolish the constitution and reservation. SP chief Akhilesh Yadav was also seen giving statements on the constitution and reservation. The result of this was that it became popular among the Dalit community that if BJP comes to power, it will change the constitution, because some BJP leaders were seen saying in arrogance that 400 seats are needed to change the constitution. Due to this, a large number of Dalit community left not only BJP but also Dalit based parties like BSP and stood in favor of India Alliance. The result is that SP and Congress are getting an edge. BJP could not break this narrative in the elections.
Voting pattern of Muslims changed the game
The number of Muslim voters in UP is about 20 percent. After the alliance of SP and Congress, all the dilemmas of Muslims ended. BSP chief Mayawati fielded a large number of candidates from the Muslim community, while SP fielded 4 and Congress fielded only two Muslim candidates in UP. Even after this, Muslims preferred the non-Muslim candidates of India Alliance over the Muslim candidates of BSP. The entire vote of Muslims went in favor of joining India. This spoiled the entire game of India Alliance and BSP. During the elections, Muslims remained completely silent and the strategy of voting on a large scale proved favorable for the Bharatiya Janata Party.