The fate of AAP and BJP depends on the performance of Congress.

The dates of assembly elections in Delhi may not have been announced yet, but the excitement in the political circles has intensified. The election atmosphere has started heating up with the announcement of candidates and campaigning. The main contest seems to be between the ruling Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), but Congress, which has been out of the Assembly for 10 years, can also play an important role this time. The figures of the last three assembly elections show that the position of the Congress will decide the course of the Delhi electoral equation.

2013: Strength of Congress gave edge to BJP, AAP entered

The 2013 elections brought a big change in Delhi politics.

• Entry of ‘AAP’:
  AAP, which emerged from the anti-corruption movement, surprised everyone by winning 28 seats.
• Performance of BJP and Congress:
  • BJP: 31 seats (vote share: 33.3%)
  • Congress: 8 seats (vote share: 24.7%)
  • ‘AAP’: 28 seats (vote share: 29.7%)
• The inclination of traditional Congress voters towards AAP was a sign of changing electoral equation.

2015: AAP’s massive victory due to the collapse of Congress

AAP got the direct benefit of Congress’s weakness.

• ‘your performance:
  • Seats: 68/70.
  • Vote share: 54%.
• Fall of Congress:
  • Vote share: Decreased from 24% to 9%.
• Muslim and Dalit voters, who were traditional supporters of the Congress, sided with AAP.

2020: Congress becomes weaker, AAP’s dominance continues

Congress’s performance further declined in the 2020 elections, due to which BJP benefited but AAP won.

• ‘your performance:
  • Seats: 62/70.
  • Vote share: 53.8%.
• BJP’s performance:
  • Seats: 8.
  • Vote share: 39%.
• Congress:
  • Vote share: Decrease from 9% to 4.3%.
• The remaining votes of Congress also shifted towards ‘AAP’, due to which BJP, despite being strong, was reduced to 8 seats.

Will Congress be able to regain its vote bank?

The performance of Congress in the 2024 elections will depend on to what extent it is able to win back its lost voters.

• Selection of candidates:
  • This time Congress has announced candidates for more than half the seats.
  • Against Arvind Kejriwal:
    Sandeep Dikshit, son of former Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit, has been fielded.
  • Against Manish Sisodia:
    Farhad Suri has been given ticket from Jangpura.
• Focus on Muslim and Dalit voters:
  Congress has made a strategy to attract these voters back by fielding strong candidates on many seats.
• Young and new faces:
  The party has given opportunities to young faces on many seats, indicating new energy.

Increased challenge for ‘AAP’

AAP’s concern has increased due to the aggressive strategy of Congress.

• Attacks on Kejriwal:
  Congress has adopted an aggressive stance against Arvind Kejriwal.
• Vote bank battle:
  If Congress is successful in bringing back its old voters, then difficulties may increase for AAP.
• AAP’s strategy:
  Party strategists know that it is very important for them to stop Congress from becoming stronger.