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On one hand, the countdown for the departure of South-West Monsoon has started in the country, while on the other hand, a powerful weather system forming in the sea has raised alarm bells for many states. India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued a high alert regarding the formation of intense cyclonic pressure and depression in the Bay of Bengal. According to meteorologists, this seasonal disturbance may bring heavy to extremely heavy rainfall over the states of coastal and central India in the farewell phase of monsoon.
The line of withdrawal of monsoon from Western Rajasthan is moving forward, but due to this new weather system active in East and South India, severe thunderstorms, lightning and strong storm winds are expected to continue for the next four to five days.
According to the latest bulletin of the Meteorological Department, the cyclonic circulation of upper air over the North Andaman Sea has now transformed into a pronounced low-pressure area in the east-central Bay of Bengal.
This system is continuously moving towards west-northwest direction. Meteorologists estimate that by September 21, it will become a strong depression in the east-central Bay of Bengal and by September 22, it will take the form of a ‘deep depression’ in the west-central Bay of Bengal. After this, by the morning of 23 September, this system will reach close to the northern Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha coasts, due to which the sea will remain turbulent in the coastal areas and the wind speed can reach 70 to 75 km per hour.
The most direct and devastating impact of this deep depression is going to be on the coastal districts of Odisha and Andhra Pradesh.
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Odisha: A warning has been issued for extremely heavy rainfall in the districts of South Odisha (such as Ganjam, Gajapati, Rayagada, Koraput and Malkangiri) on 23 and 24 September. There is a danger of strong storm and lightning at the speed of 50 to 70 km per hour at many places.
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Coastal Andhra Pradesh: There is an alert of torrential rain in the areas of North Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Yanam from 22 to 24 September. Disaster management teams have been instructed to be prepared in view of the possibility of waterlogging in low-lying areas, overflow of local drains and landslides.
The widespread impact of this marine system will be seen in other states of Eastern India also:
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West Bengal: Gangetic West Bengal (Kolkata, Howrah, South and North 24 Parganas, Medinipur) is expected to receive intermittent heavy rain and thundershowers between September 22 and 25. There is a possibility of heavy rain in Sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim on 23-24 September.
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Jharkhand: There is a warning of severe thunder and lightning in many parts of the state on September 21 and 22, while from September 23 to 25, heavy rain may be recorded in most of the districts.
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Bihar: Cloud activity will increase in the districts of North and South Bihar during September 24 to 26 and moderate to heavy rains with strong winds will begin at many places.
As this weather system moves out of the sea and towards land areas, there will be drastic changes in the weather of Central India:
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Chhattisgarh: Extremely heavy rain is predicted in districts like Bastar, Dantewada and Sukma of southern Chhattisgarh on September 24. During September 23 to 25, widespread rainfall and lightning activities will be witnessed across the state.
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Maharashtra and Vidarbha: There are chances of heavy rain in Vidarbha region on 24th and 25th September. There is a possibility of heavy rain in the ghat areas of Konkan, Goa and Central Maharashtra on 22-23 September.
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Telangana and Karnataka: Heavy to very heavy rain may occur in Telangana between 23 and 25 September. Rains will continue with local cloud movement over coastal and interior parts of Karnataka and Kerala also.
The weather patterns are completely different in most parts of North-West India. The official departure of monsoon has started from West Rajasthan (Jaisalmer, Barmer, Bikaner) and in the next few days it will also retreat from some more parts of Punjab, Haryana and Saurashtra-Kutch.
At present, the sky will be clear or partly cloudy in the areas of Uttar Pradesh (Lucknow, Kanpur, Varanasi, Prayagraj, Noida) and Delhi-NCR. However, as this depression in the Bay of Bengal progresses, light to moderate rain or drizzle may be seen in some Terai and border districts of eastern Uttar Pradesh around September 24-25. At present, there will be a slight increase in day temperature and the effect of humidity in these plains.
In view of the high waves and stormy conditions in the sea, the Meteorological Department has issued a strict marine warning:
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Wind speed may reach 45 to 55 kmph gusting to 65 kmph over east-central and north-east Bay of Bengal on September 21.
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During September 22 to 24, winds in central and north-west Bay of Bengal may reach a speed of 55 to 65 km per hour and a maximum speed of 75 km per hour.
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Fishermen have been advised not to venture into central and north Bay of Bengal and coastal waters of Odisha, West Bengal and Andhra Pradesh from September 20 to 25. Boats that are already in the sea have been instructed to return to the nearest shore immediately.