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Currently, tensions have reached their peak on the geopolitical map of the Middle East, and the world’s eyes are once again on the strategic waterways of the Red Sea. Iran-backed Houthi rebels have established control over ‘Mocha’, a very important commercial and strategic city located on the coast of the Red Sea, after which they are now trying to surround the world’s most sensitive maritime chokepoint ‘Bab al-Mandeb Strait’. If the Houthis succeed in completely capturing this strategic strait, Saudi Arabia will be strategically trapped in a deadly maze of Houthis. Amidst this dire threat, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has appealed directly to US President Donald Trump for help. According to the report of the prestigious media organization ‘Axios’, the Saudi Prince contacted the US President twice on phone in this hour of crisis and strongly requested him to carry out direct military strikes against the Houthis. However, despite this, US President Donald Trump completely rejected this request, which has caused a major political upheaval in the diplomatic corridors of the Gulf countries.
The aggressive activities of Houthi rebels and their continuous drone and missile attacks have given Saudi Arabia sleepless nights. The Bab al-Mandeb Waterway, connecting the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden, is a lifeline for global trade, international shipping and especially Saudi Arabia’s oil exports. If the Houthis establish control over this sea route, the supply of Saudi oil may come to a halt, which will have a direct impact on the global economy. The report has revealed that in view of these increasing threats, Saudi Prince Mohammed bin Salman had requested US President Donald Trump to launch direct military attacks on the Houthis’ positions so that their advancing steps could be stopped. But in response, the Trump administration clearly refused. US officials have informed the media that the White House currently has no plans to directly engage in any military conflict against Yemen or the Houthis. This blunt stance of America has made Saudi Arabia realize that in this period of severe crisis, it will have to strengthen its own strategic and tactical decisions, because Washington is currently in no mood to take the risk of direct military intervention.
The war that broke out between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis and the US President’s refusal of military help has immediately seen its impact on the international market. On the same day when the Saudi Prince requested the US President for military intervention over the phone, on the same day, a skyrocketing rise in the prices of crude oil was recorded in the global market. Oil prices jumped to dangerous levels of around $116 per barrel. Analysts believe this surge reflects deep concerns that if this strategic sea route of the Red Sea remains disrupted for a long time, it could lead to a worldwide energy crisis. Iran is already hampering shipping activities through the world’s other vital Strait of Hormuz, and now the Houthis’ growing hold on the Bab al-Mandeb is giving Tehran another powerful weapon to put undue pressure on the US and its Gulf allies. Iran and its regional proxies are moving forward under this strategic formula, due to which serious question marks are being raised on the security system of Gulf countries and investors are also scared.
Analysts are seeing this diplomacy of America as a deliberate move or its own strategic compulsions. On one hand, the White House is rejecting the Saudi Prince’s request for direct military help, on the other hand, the US is secretly giving signals to increase diplomatic and defensive support to Saudi Arabia. The main reason behind this is that America wants to avoid getting trapped in another long war by directly landing troops on this complex marshy land of Yemen. America knows very well that if it directly intervenes militarily, this conflict will spread like wildfire throughout the Middle East and many other Gulf countries may also fall prey to it. With the aim of striking this delicate diplomatic balance and establishing coordination in the region, Admiral Brad Cooper, head of the US Central Command (CENTCOM), has recently visited Saudi Arabia. America wants to send the message that it stands diplomatically with Riyadh, but it is not ready to take the risk of direct bombing against the Houthis, due to which some uneasiness can be clearly felt in the ongoing strategic partnership between Saudi Arabia and America.
The roots of this bloody conflict going on between Saudi Arabia and Houthi rebels are hidden in the developments of the last few months. Tensions between the two sides reached a peak when Riyadh blocked an Iranian plane carrying some senior Houthi officials returning from the funeral of late former Iranian supreme leader Ali Khamenei from landing at Sanaa airport. To avenge that insult and show their strength, the Houthis began targeting Saudi Arabia’s oil installations, infrastructure and Saudi tankers passing through the Red Sea. However, the Saudi army and its Yemeni allies have also retaliated and launched heavy airstrikes and ground operations on Houthi positions, but despite this, the spirits of the Houthis have not been defeated. Initially, Saudi Arabia’s stance was that it was capable of dealing with the Houthi threat alone without US military help, but as the Houthis captured Mocha port and the oil export routes were under threat, Riyadh was forced to change its policy and appealed to the US. Now it remains to be seen how Saudi Arabia comes out of this dilemma in the absence of American support and whether this conflict pushes the Middle East towards a major war.