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Monsoon Update Today: There is good news for the countrymen of India. This year the monsoon will be good and there will be heavy rains in more than 20 states. According to the comprehensive rainfall forecast for the southwest monsoon season 2024 released by the IMD, the entire country is likely to receive above normal rainfall during the southwest monsoon season from June to September 2024, which bodes well for crops.
There will be more rain than normal in most parts of the country
Giving information about the rainfall of the 2024 southwest monsoon season, Dr. M. Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, said that it is expected to be 106 percent of the long term average (LPA) with a model error of ±. 5%. It is likely to happen. The LPA of monsoon season rainfall over the entire country, based on data from 1971-2020, is 87 cm. This year, most parts of the country are expected to receive below normal rainfall, except some areas of northwest, east and north-east India, where rainfall is likely to be below normal. There is a possibility of more rain than normal in some parts. Expected La Nina, positive IOD and below normal snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere will be favorable for rainfall during the southwest monsoon 2024 season.
Effect of El Nino will be visible
IMD Director General Dr Mrityunjay Mohapatra said that at present, moderate El Nino effect conditions prevail over the equatorial Pacific and climate model forecasts indicate neutral till the beginning of the monsoon season and La Nina effect in the second half of the monsoon. Are. Are. Snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere was below normal during the last three months (January to March 2024), reflecting excessive rainfall this monsoon. The extent of winter and spring snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere as well as Eurasia is generally inversely related to subsequent monsoon rainfall. IMD will issue an updated forecast of monsoon rain in the last week of May 2024.
Rainfall Forecast During South-West Monsoon Season 2024
- Above normal rainfall (106% of the long term average) is likely to occur over the entire country during the monsoon (June to September).
- Quantitatively, seasonal rainfall across the country is likely to be 106% of LPA with a model error of ±5%.
- Based on data from 1971-2020, the LPA of seasonal rainfall over the entire country is 87 cm.
- Currently, moderate El Nino conditions persist in the equatorial Pacific. Climate model forecasts indicate neutral El Niño conditions until the beginning of the monsoon season and La Niña conditions during the latter half of the monsoon season.
- Presently neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions prevail. Climate model projections indicate that positive IOD conditions are likely to develop during the monsoon season.
- Snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere was below normal during the last three months (January to March 2024). The extent of winter and spring snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere as well as Eurasia is generally inversely related to the rainfall of the subsequent monsoon season.
Know how the monsoon will be in which state
More than 20 states are expected to receive above normal rainfall: Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Punjab, Chandigarh, Haryana, Delhi, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, Sikkim, Meghalaya, Arunachal Pradesh, Puducherry, Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Lakshadweep, Dadra and Nagar Haveli, Daman-Diu.
4 states: Chhattisgarh, Himachal, Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh Expect normal rain in.
Less than normal rainfall expected in 6 states: Odisha, Assam, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura.