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All the phases of Lok Sabha elections have been completed in Maharashtra. Voting has been done on 48 seats in five phases. Now the results are awaited. At the same time, various speculations are also going on about the results. This time two factions are face to face. The equations have changed. This time there is a tussle between NDA and India Alliance. The way Shiv Sena and NCP broke up and formed an alliance with NDA and India Alliance has changed the entire political equation of Maharashtra. On one side is Eknath Shinde and his Shiv Sena which is an ally of BJP. Both currently have NDA state governments. Both have also fought the Lok Sabha elections together. Ajit Pawar's party NCP is also with him. Thus all three components of NDA have changed. On the other hand, those who lost power in the state include Uddhav Thackeray and his Shiv Sena and NCP and Congress. Here NCP is led by Sharad Pawar.
NDA loses 10 seats in Maharashtra
Politically, due to the disintegration of Shiv Sena and NCP, there was no harmony among the workers and leaders. Due to this, instead of concrete issues and actions, there was a round of rhetoric and allegations and counter-allegations in the Lok Sabha. There was no special discussion on the issue here. On the other hand, widespread resentment is also being seen regarding the communal and other demands of the local people. Here, first of all, the question of resentment of Marathas seems to be widespread. 28 percent of the population here is Maratha. They feel that after the alliance with NDA, injustice is being done to the Marathas. They are being sidelined. Here, the issue of Maratha reservation has also disappeared. Apart from this, there is widespread dissatisfaction among the farmers. Apart from the agricultural crisis and MSP, the farmers' movement has a wide impact in many districts of Maharashtra. Political analysts believe that at present the opposition to the NDA is visible, but the real picture will come out only when the votes are counted. However, the current political and social atmosphere during the election shows that the NDA will lose about 10 seats and the Bharat Alliance may gain 10 seats.
The displeasure of the Maratha community may prove costly
According to political experts, this time the resentment of Marathas is being seen more in Maharashtra. The Maratha community is expressing resentment against the state government and the central government on various issues. According to experts, the population of Marathas here is 28 percent. Even today, there is talk of Maratha reservation here. The campaign for reservation was not left incomplete by the Marathas. From time to time this matter keeps gaining momentum. Apart from this, cooperative societies have been weakened in many districts of Maharashtra. Marathas believe that after the entry of BJP in this sector, BJP has weakened the Marathas in this sector. Cooperative banks, sector and agricultural cooperative societies are working to weaken other organizations and communities. Apart from this, there is an agricultural crisis in many districts. There is no solution to this crisis. Apart from this, Marathas have not been given special opportunities politically. Till now Marathas used to get preference among the Chief Ministers in Maharashtra, but now this has also been reduced. Marathas are not allowed to remain strong on social, political, economic and any issue. This anger can backfire.
The political atmosphere is also heated on the issue of reservation
Marathas in Maharashtra want more political prominence as well as social benefits. This issue has also been going on for many years. Efforts are being made to get the benefit of reservation from OBC to Marathas. Marathas are demanding 28 percent reservation from OBC quota. This is the reason why there has been a dispute between Maratha and OBC community for a long time. At present it is not clear which political party will benefit from this social situation. BJP has the support of OBC and BJP has been trying to attract Marathas for the last four decades. No one or the state government is ready to take the name of Muga on the issue of reservation. This time it is becoming difficult for BJP to keep both the communities with them. Some political pundits believe that since Prime Minister Narendra Modi comes from the OBC community, there is a good possibility that the OBC community will support the BJP. Apart from this, BJP has now given a chance to Marathas in place of Ajit Pawar in cooperative banks, so Marathas may also become a little soft.
BJP's graph in Maharashtra has been going up and down
If we look at the Lok Sabha elections, the graph of BJP has always been up and down. There has been no continuity in BJP's victory. Talking about the last three Lok Sabha elections, there was a big jump in 2014 as compared to the seats won by BJP in 2009. At that time BJP was upset. Then in 2019, BJP's graph was seen falling down once again. That is why BJP is worried. Its graph is coming down again. Similar fluctuations were seen in vote sharing as well. If we look at the last Lok Sabha elections, BJP had won 23 seats. Shiv Sena got 18, NCP got 4 while Congress got only 1 seat. NDA had 41 seats out of 48 and UPA had only 5 seats. This time the equation has changed. In this Lok Sabha, NDA has fielded its candidates on 25 seats, Eknath Shinde's party Shiv Sena on 15 seats and NCP on five seats. On the other hand, among the constituent parties of the India Alliance, Congress has fielded its candidates on 17 seats, Shiv Sena on 21 seats and Sharad Pawar's NCP on 10 seats.
Both Shivsena and UNCP have become weak
Political pundits believe that this is a big opportunity for both BJP and Congress to move ahead. Even if we leave aside NDA and India Alliance, this election is for BJP and Congress to increase their political stature. The situation here is such that Shiv Sena, which was an important part of NDA, is suffering losses since its separation. Shinde faction and Uddhav faction have been trying to outdo each other for a long time. They are creating trouble for each other.' BJP is benefiting from this. Especially on the issue of Hindutva, BJP seems to have an upper hand. Apart from this, the condition of NCP is also similar. NCP was divided by Sharad Pawar and Ajit Pawar faction. Since then, the issue is going on as to who is the owner of the original NCP and who is the head of NCP. The two parts of NCP can now help in increasing the stature of Congress. Amidst all this, it is being estimated that NDA may lose 10 seats. At the same time, India Alliance may gain 10 seats. Another report says that this time NDA will get 33 seats while India Alliance may get 15 seats. In such a situation, NDA may lose 8 seats, while India Alliance may gain 10 seats.
Many projects were given to Gujarat instead of Maharashtra
Many intellectuals of Maharashtra believe that Maharashtra is also being treated unfairly in the matter of giving big projects by BJP. In the last decade, many projects were to be given to Maharashtra but were given to Gujarat. If we look at the history of the last four years, many projects from Delhi were given to Gujarat instead of Maharashtra. This has upset the industry groups and groups. On the other hand, it has been claimed that Gujarat is being given more benefits instead of Maharashtra in the agriculture sector as well. There was resentment in Maharashtra some time back especially on the issue of onion because Gujarat farmers were given preference instead of Maharashtra. Farmers believe that this movement has been done by the farmers on the issue of agricultural law. Many farmers of Maharashtra participated in it. Due to this, farmers are being punished by the Center on the issue of onion. This time the agricultural crisis has become even more serious. Farmers are also now ready for a do-or-die battle. In such a situation, it will be interesting to know who the farmers and Marathas and intellectuals will vote for.