look news india
The continuous fluctuations in the mood of the South-West Monsoon in the country have once again increased the concerns of meteorologists, agricultural experts and farmers. In the initial week of August, heavy and torrential rains in many parts of the country had bridged the monsoon deficit to a great extent, but soon after, the monsoon trough shifted towards the Himalayan foothills and the monsoon winds weakened, leading to a long ‘dry spell’ of rains in the plains of the country. According to the latest compiled data of India Meteorological Department (IMD), due to this dry spell, the cumulative rainfall deficit in the country has once again increased to an alarming level of 10.5 percent. Due to cessation of rains in this important fortnight of August, drought-like conditions have started developing in many major agricultural states of North, Central and Peninsular India.
Monsoon break in August and sudden drop in rainfall
According to the Meteorological Department, the southwest monsoon season, which started from June 1, had recorded relatively better rainfall in the month of July and in the first week of August also, the low pressure areas formed in the Bay of Bengal had brought good rainfall in Central India. However, for the last few days, a ‘Monsoon Break Condition’ has dominated the monsoon system. Meteorologists analyze that when the monsoon trough shifts north, monsoon activities almost come to a standstill in the large plains of the country. Due to this, rainfall remains limited only in the northeastern states and Himalayan foothills, while the drought in the huge agricultural producing states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Karnataka and Telangana begins to deepen with intense sunlight and heavy humidity.
Regional imbalance of rainfall and extent of drought in the states
The distribution of rainfall across the country remains highly uneven this season. While on one hand, extreme rainfall and landslides were recorded locally in parts of Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand and the North-East, on the other hand, the main food grain producing states of the country are witnessing heavy indifference of clouds.
-
Gangetic plains: Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Gangetic region of West Bengal and Jharkhand have recorded 25 to 40 percent less rainfall than normal, due to which the level of water sources is falling rapidly in many districts of these states.
-
Peninsular and Southern India: There is a severe rainfall deficit of 20 to 35 percent in many parts of Interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema, Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh.
-
Central and Western India: Marathwada and Vidarbha regions of Maharashtra as well as western Madhya Pradesh have witnessed a sharp decline in moisture levels due to persistent dry weather over the past fortnight.
Direct impact on Kharif crops, paddy transplantation and agricultural economy.
The month of August is considered to be the most sensitive and important for the growth of Kharif season crops. At this time, crops of paddy, soybean, maize, cotton, pigeon pea, moong and sugarcane are in the growing phase and they require adequate moisture and irrigation continuously. This total deficit of 10.5 percent in rainfall and the prolonged drought are posing many serious challenges.
-
Crisis on standing paddy crops: Farmers who had completed paddy transplantation with the help of tube wells or limited irrigation are now struggling with cracks in the fields and water shortage. Due to lack of timely rain, there is a possibility of increased pest infestation and yellowing of crops.
-
Impact on the yield of pulses and oilseeds: In Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra, soybean and urad-mung crops require immediate rainfall for the development of beans. Due to delay in rain, there is a risk of 15 to 20 percent decline in yield per acre.
-
Boom in groundwater and electricity consumption: Due to drying up of water in canals and ponds, farmers have become completely dependent on tube wells and borewells, due to which the demand for agricultural electricity in rural areas has reached record levels and the ground water level is falling drastically.
Decreasing water level in reservoirs and possible shortage of drinking water
According to the weekly monitoring report of 150 major reservoirs in the country by the Central Water Commission (CWC), the total water storage in many major dams is currently being recorded below their capacity and historical average. Water inflow has been extremely weak, especially in the reservoirs of southern and eastern India. If there is no widespread monsoon rain in the remaining days of August and the first fortnight of September, it will not only have a direct impact on the sowing of the upcoming Rabi crops, but may also create a crisis of drinking water supply for the summer next year in many big cities and towns.
Meteorological Department’s forecast and expectation of relief for the coming days
Senior meteorologists of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) estimate that a new Cyclonic Circulation and low pressure area is likely to become active over the north-western part of the Bay of Bengal within the next 48 to 72 hours. With the development of this new weather system, there are favorable signs of the monsoon trough once again shifting southwards. Due to its effect, a new round of rains may start in parts of Odisha, West Bengal, Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and eastern Uttar Pradesh during August 18 to 22, which is expected to lead to partial improvement in the existing monsoon deficit. However, weather experts are clear that there will be a strong need for widespread and sustained monsoon activities across the country to maintain the overall balance of the season.