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The second phase of the south-west monsoon made a strong presence of clouds over many parts of the country during August. Rivers overflowed in central India and hilly states and flood-like conditions were seen in many areas. However, despite this heavy rain, the regional deficit of the country’s overall monsoon rainfall has not been completely eliminated. According to meteorologists and agriculture experts, the distribution of rainfall this year has been highly uneven. Incidents like cloud burst and extreme rainfall were recorded in some limited areas, while many huge agricultural areas of the country are still facing the brunt of less than normal rainfall. Short-term torrential rains resulted in runoff, which did not allow sufficient time for groundwater and soil moisture to recharge to required levels.
The active El Niño weather phenomenon in the Pacific Ocean and the changing conditions of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) have unbalanced the flow of monsoon winds in the Indian subcontinent. Due to this, serious drought-like situations have arisen in many big food grain producing states of the country. Apart from the eastern and north-eastern states, many parts of the southern peninsula are facing severe rain deficiency. Cumulative rainfall has been recorded below normal by 25 to 40 percent in many districts of Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal, eastern Uttar Pradesh, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and interior Tamil Nadu. Due to insufficient water in the fields and water supply not reaching the tail of the canals, farmers have to depend on expensive diesel pumps and tube wells to save their standing crops.
The most direct and fatal impact of this imbalance of monsoon is on the Kharif crops of the country. The month of August is considered most important for the vegetative growth and grain formation process of crops. Due to lack of water in the eastern states, paddy plantation has lagged behind and in many places the planted crops are on the verge of drying up. On the other hand, drought conditions in the major growing areas of pulse crops—especially tur, urad and moong—are expected to result in a significant decline in yields. Oilseed crops like soybean and groundnut are also facing the double threat of lack of moisture and attack of pests. Agricultural scientists say that if crops do not get the required moisture immediately, the production per hectare may decline by 15 to 20 percent.
Water storage in major dams and reservoirs across the country also remains a major cause of concern. The overall water level in major reservoirs monitored by the Central Water Commission (CWC) is running well below the average for the same time in previous years. The water level situation in the dams of southern and eastern India is most critical. Due to lack of sufficient water in the reservoirs, not only the irrigation and hydropower production is being affected at present, but it is also sure to have an adverse effect on the sowing of the upcoming Rabi season. The crisis of primary soil moisture and initial irrigation required for sowing of main Rabi crops like wheat, gram, mustard and Rabi maize may deepen.
Crop failure and low yields are expected to have a direct impact on the country’s rural economy and the household budget of the common citizen. Farmers’ cost of production has increased as they have to spend huge amounts on additional irrigation, pesticides and re-sowing. If there is a decline in Kharif production, its direct impact will be visible on the prices of agricultural commodities in the open market. There may be a sudden rise in food inflation in the country due to increase in the prices of rice, pulses and edible oils. This situation will not only affect the purchasing power and demand of rural India, but will also create new problems for the central government and policy makers in managing buffer stocks and food grains.
According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), all eyes are on the low pressure systems forming in the Bay of Bengal during the last phase of monsoon i.e. September. If the monsoon trough returns to normal in September and a new round of rainfall coupled with active western disturbances begins, soil moisture may improve to some extent. However, weather experts also believe that the September rains will not be able to completely revive the lagging and dried crops, but it can prove helpful in preparing for the upcoming Rabi crops and keeping the groundwater level stable. The Agriculture Department has implemented Contingency Crop Plan in the affected states and advised farmers to adopt alternative crops with shorter duration and less water.