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Delhi Assembly Elections: Even though the dates for the assembly elections in Delhi have not been announced, the campaign has gained momentum with the announcement of the candidates. Analysis of the results of the last three elections has made it clear that the main contest in these elections may be between Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) and Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), but Congress has been ‘out’. Remaining in the assembly for 10 years is also an important factor. The outcome of the next election depends on the strength of the Congress or its poor performance.
In 2013, when Congress was strong, AAP lagged behind BJP.
When the Aam Aadmi Party entered the fray for the first time in 2013 due to the anti-corruption movement, it surprised everyone by winning 28 seats. BJP is leading with 31 seats while Congress is reduced to 8 seats after 15 years of rule. Then BJP got 33.3% vote share while AAP was chosen by 29.7% voters. Congress managed to get 24.7% votes.
In 2015, AAP won a huge majority and reduced the dominance of Congress.
How AAP took advantage of Congress’s weakness is evident from the 2015 election results. AAP had secured over 24% vote share two years ago, after which it could retain only 9% of the voters. The result was that AAP got 54% votes and won 68 out of 70 seats. Muslims, Dalits and other traditional voters of Congress shifted to AAP. Since then these voters have remained with AAP.
Congress weakened in 2020
Congress has become further weak in the 2020 assembly elections. This is the reason why despite getting more vote share than before, BJP could win only 8 seats and AAP could win only 62 seats. In the last elections, AAP got 53.8% votes while BJP got about 39% votes. Then Congress got votes which came down from 9% to 4.3%. As more Congress voters shifted to AAP, BJP got only 8 seats.
Will Congress be able to get its voters back?
The result of the assembly elections in Delhi will largely depend on whether Congress is able to woo its voters or not. This time, after doing a lot of homework, the party has announced candidates for more than half the seats. While former CM Sheila Dikshit’s son Sandeep Dikshit has been fielded against Arvind Kejriwal, there are complete arrangements to increase the problems of Manish Sisodia by giving ticket to Farhad Suri from Jangpura, targeting Muslim and Dalit voters.
This attitude of Congress has increased the concern of Aam Aadmi Party.
Strong candidates have been fielded on many seats. Also, an attempt has been made to change the situation by giving opportunities to new and young faces on many seats. The party is trying to position itself in competition with its aggressive stance on Kejriwal. This attitude of Congress has increased the concern of Aam Aadmi Party. Party strategists know that if Congress succeeds in wooing a large part of its vote bank, then the difficulties for it will increase further.