Sunday , November 24 2024

How LTCG-STCG will take Sensex to 76000 and Nifty to 23500

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Ahmedabad: The announcement of increase in long term and short term capital gains tax in the Union Budget 2024-25 presented in Parliament on July 23 by Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has shocked investors. Apart from this, the increase in STT tax to keep retail investors away may fill the government's treasury but it will have a bad impact on market sentiment.

The proposal to increase the long term capital gain tax from the current 10 percent to 12.5 percent and the short term capital gain tax from the current 15 percent to 20 percent caused a huge uproar in the stock market. The exemption on LTCG increased from Rs. 1 lakh to Rs. 1.25 lakh annually. After the proposal, the market saw a recovery at the end of the day, but market experts believe that this decision will hinder the market's uptrend in the short to long term. The market has been witnessing a steady uptrend for the last two years. The Sensex will have to strengthen to cross the 1 lakh mark in the near future.

After hitting a low of 79,224, the Sensex and Nifty 50 index hit a low of 24,074 and closed the day at 80,429 and 24,479 respectively. According to market experts, the Sensex may fall to the level of 78,400 to 78,500 in the short term. Currently, there is support at 79,500. In the worst case scenario, the Sensex may fall to 75,800, which is the 50 percent retracement level from the low of June 4, the day of the Lok Sabha election results. This year, the Sensex may go in the 75,875 – 81,755 zone.

In Nifty too, if the level of 24,200 is broken, then support will be found at 23,700 and below that at 23,500, although at present the upside seems to be limited around the level of 24,800. If we look at the technical parameters, then the break of 24,100 on the downside can be seen at 50-DMA 23,460 or 100-DMA 22,880.