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Amidst the ongoing turmoil in the international energy market and inflation concerns, the economic research team of the country’s largest public sector bank, State Bank of India (SBI), has released a very relieving and important report. According to this latest analysis report of SBI published on Friday, 13 November 2026, in the coming year 2027, there may be a big fall in the prices of global crude oil and it may come down to the level of around $ 70 per barrel. For a country like India, the world’s third largest crude oil importer, this estimate is not only going to control the fiscal deficit, but is also a sign of giving great relief to the general public from the inflation of fuel and transportation.
SBI economists in their analysis have underlined several concrete global and geopolitical reasons behind this possible decline. According to the report, the most important factor in this is the gradual cooling down of the long-running tension and conflict between America and Iran. Additionally, the potential increase in crude oil exports from major oil producing countries of West Asia and easing of supply chain pressure in global oil markets will also play an important role in bringing down crude oil prices.
Throwing light on immediate market trends, SBI’s reports also draw on advanced artificial intelligence and data modelling. The report states that according to the bank’s ‘LTSM’ forecast model, there may be a clear softening in the prices of the international standard ‘Brent Crude’ within the next 10 days and its average price during this period may remain around $ 87 per barrel.
It is noteworthy that LTSM is a state-of-the-art Deep Learning Technology, which is used by economists and data scientists to make extremely accurate predictions of future economic events or market prices based on deep analysis of historical and sequential data. The signals received from this technology show that the surge of crude oil in the international market is now on the verge of stopping.
Along with the possible softening of crude oil prices, the SBI report also closely assessed the country’s domestic inflation rate and the possible stance of the upcoming monetary policy of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The report highlights that the improvement in the external global environment is one of the major factors that will influence the central bank’s policy decisions.
However, on the domestic front, the latest inflation figures do raise some concerns. For the first time in the new series, India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation has crossed the critical level of 6 percent. According to official data, retail inflation has increased to 6.09 percent in October 2026, which is more than the Reserve Bank of India’s upper tolerance band of 6 percent. SBI experts estimate that the inflation rate in the country will remain above 6 percent in the next month too, however after this it will start decreasing gradually due to new arrival of vegetables and softening of global prices.
Regarding interest rates, the eyes of common borrowers and the industry are fixed on the upcoming Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting of the Reserve Bank of India. SBI’s report on this clearly believes that due to improvement in external global conditions, stability in foreign exchange rates and increase in foreign capital inflows into the Indian market, the possibility of any major and aggressive change in the repo rate has now reduced considerably.
The report said that the bank’s assessment is that it is now more likely that the RBI will increase interest rates only marginally by 25 basis points (0.25%) in the December 2026 monetary policy meeting, and not by a major increase of 50 basis points. Along with this, the bank also believes that it would not be practically appropriate to increase the repo rate again in the upcoming meeting to be held in February 2027, because the general Union Budget of the country would have been presented just before that meeting of RBI. Referring to the situation of the currency market, the report said that the positive effect of the policy efforts made by the RBI to control the excessive fluctuations in the Indian Rupee has been seen on the ground, due to which the Indian currency strengthened to below the level of Rs 94 per dollar two days ago, although after this it has again registered a slight rise. Apart from this, giving evidence of the increasing confidence of global investors towards the Indian economy, the report states that since November 6, a huge foreign investment (FII/FPI) of $ 7.65 billion has come into the Indian markets.