Saturday , December 28 2024

Challenge for the government on the economic front

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New Delhi: Due to poor performance in manufacturing and mining sectors and weak demand, the country’s GDP declined to 5.4 percent in the July-September quarter of the current financial year, which is the lowest level in two years. Some ministers and economic advisors of the government raised the issue that the country’s economy is slowing down due to high interest rates. The argument being made is that the Reserve Bank should reduce the interest rates so that the country’s economy can grow rapidly again. At present, the data of economy growing at its lowest level in two years will increase the pressure on the Reserve Bank to reduce interest rates.

It is noteworthy that the GDP in the July-September quarter of 2023-24 was 8.1 percent. Whereas in the April-June quarter of 2024-25, GDP was 6.7 percent.

Earlier, the GDP in the October-December quarter of 2022-23 was 4.3 percent. However, with China’s GDP growing by 4.6 per cent in the July-September quarter of 2024-25, India is becoming the fastest growing economy among the world’s major economies.

According to National Statistical Office (NSO) data, the agriculture sector grew at the rate of 3.5 percent in the July-September quarter of the financial year 2024-25, compared to 1.7 percent in the same period last year.

The growth rate of the manufacturing sector in the second quarter of the current financial year has been 2.2 percent. Whereas in the same period last year, an increase of 14.3 percent was seen. After the second quarter GDP figures are out, the GDP for the first six months of 2024-25 is estimated to be 6 percent. In the same period last year, GDP was 8.2 percent.

Meanwhile, according to the data released by the government, the Centre’s financial deficit in the first seven months of the current financial year has reached 46.5 percent of the total target for the entire year.

Central fiscal deficit is the difference between government expenditure and government revenue. The gap between expenditure and revenue in the April to October period is Rs 7,50,824 crore.

The growth of eight core sectors has declined to 3.1 percent in October 2024. In October last year, the growth of these eight core sectors was 12.7 percent.

On the other hand, the government is considering changing the base year for GDP calculations from 2011-12 to 2022-23 to show an accurate picture of the economy. The Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation has said in a statement that this change will be implemented from 2026.

The GDP calculations were last revised in 2011-12 and this will be the first revision in more than a decade.