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It is important to pay attention to this witness of history because this month the US Federal Reserve can cut the interest rate and if the decision is as expected, then the month of September will definitely excite investors by erasing the dark chapter of history. But since all these theories are based on if and then, then a sensible strategy should be adopted in the matter of investment in the current month, market experts have said in one voice.
Will the market continue to make records in September?, the questions raised in the wake of market uncertainty are important. As warned by many market experts, Indian stocks are currently at their highest valuations. This trend has been continuing in the market for some time now. The worrying thing is that the market is unlikely to rally in September, looking at the monthly returns of the last ten years. Although August has been a turbulent month for the market, the good news is that the benchmark Sensex touched new highs last month. This also includes a rise of 12 sessions. These sessions contributed to a higher monthly closing, erasing all the losses in the market.
Reviewing the year-to-date 2014, there were seven Septembers when the market recorded negative returns with an average loss of 0.74 percent. However, September of the year 2019, 2021, 2023 is an exception in this case. In the month of September of these years, the market had increased by 3.6 percent, 2.7 percent, 1.5 percent respectively. But if these three years are calculated, then there was an average loss of 2.18 percent in September. This year September has started with expectations of interest rate cuts by the US Fed and the possibility of market turmoil. US payroll data for the month of August is likely to be released by the end of this week, due to this data there is a strong possibility of movement in US stocks. The growth of the US PCE index is in line with market expectations. Which is an indication of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Experts predict that the market will fall this week due to correction after 12 days of record-breaking gains. The main bullish event of the current month is the outcome of the US FOMC meeting on September 18. This will start the rate cut cycle. This meeting will have a global impact. Which will affect the policies of central banks of other countries, currencies, carry trades and flows in various asset classes.
Other experts also believe that the history of giving negative returns seven times in the month of September will not be repeated this time. This year the situation will be different. Because, before the Federal Reserve meeting on September 18, there will be a lot of turmoil in the market.