Sunday , November 24 2024

Sensex will close below 76444 at 75666 in the new week

Mumbai: The historic boom in the Indian stock markets continued last week as well and the Sensex reached a record weekly high of 77808 and the Nifty reached a new highest level of 23667. The Modi 3.0 government is in full form and is taking decisions one after the other with the resolve to take forward the economic policies. The countdown to the budget has begun. Now a period of speculation has started in the market in the budget fever, it is likely that the record boom in the market will stop in the coming days. Amidst the budget exercise, the progress of the monsoon is currently slow and clouds of concern have started looming over the prediction of how much and how much the heat can affect the agricultural crops in the country and the world. In such a situation, along with the global impact, the market will also keep an eye on whether the monsoon in India will be better than normal or weaker in the coming days. At present, foreign portfolio investors have again become big buyers in the Indian stock markets, but in the coming days a large section, wary of possible profit booking by local funds and pre-budget, may show a corrective trend in the market. Therefore, it will be necessary to be cautious in new big purchases in the next fortnight. Along with this, geopolitical factors, Russia's growing closeness with North Korea, South Korea's hesitation in providing weapons to Vietnam and Ukraine, may weaken the bullish sentiment. Of course, the immediate key factors will be monitoring budget provisions and the progress of monsoon. Amid these factors, next week the Sensex may close below 76444 to 77888 at 75666 and the Nifty spot may close below 23733 to 23266 at 23033.

Arjun's focus: Jammu & Kashmir Bank Ltd.

BSE (532209), NSE (J&KBANK) listed, Rs.1 payout, Jammu and Kashmir Bank Limited (J&K Bank Ltd.) is one of the oldest private sector banks in India, a scheduled commercial bank started in the year 1938. Headquartered in Srinagar, the bank is prominent in the Union Territory of Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh and is appointed by the Reserve Bank of India as an agent to transact business for the Government of Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh. J&K Bank caters to the banking needs of various customer segments. This includes business enterprises, employees of government, semi-government and autonomous organizations, farmers, artisans, public sector organizations and corporate customers. The bank also offers a wide range of retail loan products including personal loans, education loans. This includes agriculture, business, consumer loans and unique financial products to suit the needs of various customer segments.

The Government of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh holds the highest share of 59.40 per cent in the bank. With a network of 1001 branches and 1414 ATMs, the bank is active in 18 states and four union territories of the country, out of which 833 branches are located in Jammu and Kashmir, 37 in the Union Territory of Ladakh and 131 in other territories, states. Apart from this, the bank has 84 ultra small branches known as Easy Banking Units in Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh.

Business: The total deposits of the bank as on March 31, 2024 are Rs 1,34,774 crore and loans are Rs 93,762 crore. The asset quality of the bank has also improved further, the bank's total non-performing assets (NPA) have fallen from 6.04 percent to 4.08 percent as on March 31, 2024, and net NPA has fallen from 1.62 percent to 0.79 percent. About 5000 employees of the bank are under pension benefits and 7000 employees are under the NPS scheme. According to the bank, about 6000 retired employees are taking pension. The cost-to-income ratio will be further supported by the retirement of high-cost employees in the next two years. About 1,500 high-cost employees are expected to retire in the next two-three years. The bank is focusing on digitisation and more employees will be engaged in marketing and sourcing, which will help improve the efficiency of the bank. Baldev Prakash, Managing Director and CEO of the bank, expressed satisfaction over the results of the bank till the end of March 31, 2024, saying, “The bank has delivered an outstanding annual performance, reflecting our unwavering commitment to excellence and strong financial management.” The bank reflects record-breaking annual profits and impressive financial metrics. The bank has also declared a dividend of Rs 2.15 per share for the financial year 2024. He further added that it has achieved great success by following the principles of ethical business practices and maintaining the highest standards of corporate governance.

QIP Placement: The Bank has raised equity share capital (including share premium) during the year ended March 2024, the Bank has raised 6,97,02.602 shares (including premium) of Rs 1 per share in qualified institutional placement in December 2023 at a discount of 4.49 per cent (Rs 5.06 per share) to the prescribed floor price of Rs 112.66 per share raising Rs 750 crore. Along with this, the Bank has made a provision of Rs 263 crore for salary settlement of employees in the year ended March 31, 2024.

Shareholding pattern: Central Government-State Governments together have 59.40 per cent promoter holding, mutual funds have 5.07 per cent, Kotak Mahindra Trustee has 1.81 per cent, Quant Mutual Fund has 1.14 per cent, insurance companies have 2.49 per cent, LIC Insurance Corporation of India has 1.33 per cent, foreign portfolio investors have 6.99 per cent and individual shareholders with capital up to Rs 2 lakh have 18.47 per cent stake.

Book value: Rs 86 in March 2022, Rs 89 in March 2023, Rs 93 in March 2024, likely Rs 109 in March 2025

financial result:

(1) Fourth Quarter January 2024 to March 2024: Net Income increased by 8 per cent to Rs 1530.68 crore from Rs 1415.83 crore and Net Profit increased by 34 per cent to Rs 638.67 crore from Rs 476.33 crore Earnings per share-EPS increased from Rs 4.91 to Rs 5.80.

(2) Full year April 2023 to March 2024: Net Income increased by 10 per cent to Rs 6029.17 crore from Rs 5502.09 crore, Net Profit increased by 48 per cent to Rs 1767.27 crore from Rs 1197.38 crore, from Rs 10.9 to Rs 16.

(3) Expected Full Year April 2024 to March 2025: Expected Net Income Rs 6,723 crore Net Profit Rs 1,892 crore Expected Earnings per share Rs 17.18.

As follows (1) The author has no investment in the shares of the above company. The authors may have direct or indirect personal vested interests in the research sources. Consult a qualified investment financial advisor before making any investment decision. The author, Gujarat Samachar or any other person will not be responsible for any possible loss on investment. (2) Government of Jammu & Kashmir and Ladakh holds 59.40% promoter stake in J&K Bank (3) 48% growth in net profit for full FY 2023-24 to Rs 1767.67 crore Earnings per share-EPS Rs 16 Achiever (4) Expected Full Year 2024-25 Expected Earnings per share EPS of Rs 17.8 and Expected Book value of Rs 109 as against paid-up share price of Rs 109 on June 21, 2024 (Rs. 120.60 on BSE) Available at a P/E of just 6.76 as against banking sector average P/E of 19.