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The World Bank has estimated in a report that India will be the world's fastest growing economy in the next three years. Along with this, India's economic growth rate is also estimated to remain stable at 6.7 percent in these three years. According to the World Bank's latest 'Global Economic Prospects Report', the economic growth rate in India is expected to increase to 8.2 percent in the financial year 2023-24. This is 1.9 percent more than the previous estimate given by the World Bank in January.
Global economic growth will be 2.6 percent in 2024
Along with this, the World Bank has projected global economic growth to remain stable at 2.6 percent in 2024. He said that the global growth rate will reach an average of 2.7 percent in the next two years. However, this will also be much lower than the 3.1 percent of the decade before the Corona epidemic. According to a World Bank report, this forecast means that during 2024-26, countries with more than 80 percent of the world's population and global GDP will grow at a slower pace than the decade before the Corona epidemic.
South Asia's economic growth rate is expected to slow down
Apart from this, the World Bank has predicted a slowdown in the economic growth rate of South Asia. Its report states that growth in the South Asia region was 6.6 percent in 2023 and is expected to slow down to 6.2 percent in 2024. The main reason behind this slowdown will be India's growth rate declining from a high base in recent years.
Bangladesh economy may slow down
However, the World Bank estimates that the South Asia region will grow at 6.2 per cent in 2025-26, with India seeing stable growth. Among other economies in the region, growth in Bangladesh may slow slightly compared to previous years, while it is expected to strengthen in Pakistan and Sri Lanka. India will remain the fastest growing economy among the world's largest economies, but the pace of expansion is likely to slow, the report said.
After high growth in FY 2023-24, growth is projected to average 6.7 percent per year over the three fiscal years beginning in 2024-25. The main reason for this slowdown is a slowdown in investment from a high base. However, investment growth is still expected to be stronger than previously estimated and will remain robust over the forecast period due to strong public investment as well as private investment.
Agricultural production will increase and inflation will decrease
The report said private consumption growth is expected to benefit from improved agricultural production and low inflation. Government consumption is expected to grow gradually in line with the government's goal of reducing current expenditure relative to GDP. According to the report, global inflation is expected to decline to 3.5 percent in 2024 and 2.9 percent in 2025, but this pace is slower than the estimate six months ago.
Central banks will be cautious about cutting interest rates
The World Bank has also expressed the possibility in its report that despite low inflation in countries around the world, central banks may remain cautious in cutting policy interest rates. The World Bank said that inflation in India remains within the range of two-six percent set by the Reserve Bank from September 2023. However, regional inflation in the South Asian region, excluding India, remains high despite a decline from high levels.
