look news india
Indian Stock Market Outlook: Small and retail investors are worried at this time due to the high volatility of the Indian stock market. They believe that the expected results of the Lok Sabha elections on June 4 are likely to boost the market, but given the past trend of the stock market, the trend of volatility is likely to continue till 2024. The volatility index is also trading between 22.75 to 24.52 due to the Lok Sabha elections. Which is indicating major fluctuations in the stock market. In the last two months, the Sensex has traded in the high-low range of 71816-76009. Which shows a volatility of 4193 points. Thus, four important factors need to be kept in mind because in such a situation, common investors may be adversely affected. Then with the help of experienced and expert, one should understand these factors and focus on unexpected profits.
Major factors causing volatility in the stock market
- Direct and indirect effects of Lok Sabha elections
Looking at the graph of the Indian stock market related to the history of Indian elections, it is known that there is a lot of fluctuation in the market during this period. This year the Lok Sabha elections are at the beginning of the year, while the US presidential elections are at the end of the year. That is, both these elections will have a direct and indirect impact on the market.
- Implications of the US presidential election
There is a US Presidential election in November at the end of this calendar year. Nifty-50 is expected to fall heavily in this election which takes place every four years. Important events taking place in the US have an impact on the Indian stock market.
- Effect of leap year
Leap year, which occurs every four years, causes volatility in the stock market, which can be understood from the following statistical details. In the last two decades, the stock market has seen volatility ranging from a minimum of 25 percent to a maximum of 64 percent in leap years. 2024 is also a leap year, so it will be interesting to see what happens this year.
The stock market fluctuates every four years
|
Year |
High |
Take |
to reduce |
Reduce , |
|
1996 |
1,203.00 |
775.43 |
427.57 |
35.54 |
|
2000 |
1,818.15 |
1,108.20 |
709.95 |
39.05 |
|
2004 |
2,014.68 |
1,292.20 |
722.48 |
35.86 |
|
2008 |
6,357.10 |
2,252.75 |
4,104.35 |
64.56 |
|
2012 |
6,338.50 |
4,588.05 |
1,750.45 |
27.62 |
|
2016 |
9,120.00 |
6,825.80 |
2,294.20 |
25.16 |
|
2020 |
12,430.50 |
7511.10 |
4,919.40 |
39.58 |
|
2024 |
22,124.15 |
, |
, |
, |
- Numerological Impact of 2024
The lucky number for 2024 is 2 + 0 + 2 + 4 i.e. 8. The number 8 represents the planet Saturn, which indicates volatility in the market.
Effect of the VIX Index
VIX is known as the fear index. A rise indicates bearishness and a fall indicates bullishness for the market. Currently, the India VIX index is near a record high (26.20). This indicates a bearish rise with heavy volatility.
Who is adversely affected in this situation?
A volatile market is not a good situation for ordinary investors or traders as they tend to buy and hold. Hence this situation is dangerous for them.
Who is this situation beneficial for?
This situation is especially beneficial for technical traders. Options traders especially take advantage of this situation.
So what could be the investment strategy in such a situation?
In such a situation, one should focus on getting unexpected benefits with the help of an experienced and expert. That is the best solution.
