look news india
After the first three phases of voting in the Lok Sabha elections, all the BJP leaders including Narendra Modi are seen in tension. Amidst this tension, Yogendra Yadav has made a big claim.
Yogendra Yadav has made a shocking claim. He posted on his social media and wrote that like Uttar Pradesh, there are signs of election earthquake in Bihar too. After visiting 7 seats in the state, we have seen one-third of NDA's votes slipping.
He wrote that if NDA gets very less i.e. 1/5 of the votes, the dice will turn and both the parties will end up in an equal 22 NDA: 18 Grand Alliance.
Yogendra Yadav further wrote that you also understand this mathematics. I and my colleagues visited seven seats of West Bihar (Karakat, Jehanabad, Patliputra, Nalanda, Hajipur, Vaishali, Arrah and Buxar). Elections are yet to be held here. We spoke to around 300 general voters (mostly men, we were able to speak to very few women who are more likely to stick with the NDA).
He said that out of 188 people who voted for BJP and its allies in the last Lok Sabha elections, 63 (i.e. 33%) said they would change their vote this time.
On the other hand, only 3% of Grand Alliance voters will change their vote. This means that the 53% votes received by NDA in 2019 may decrease by 16%. If all the votes are reversed and go to the Grand Alliance, then the NDA will reach 37% votes and the Grand Alliance will reach 46% votes.
In his social media post he wrote that in such a situation NDA will be reduced to 5 seats. But we worked carefully and did minimum counting, as NDA may have more votes among women. Suppose that not every third but every fifth vote of NDA is slipping, that is, it is suffering a loss of 11% and 10% of it is going to the Grand Alliance.
He further wrote that, in such a situation, NDA will get 42% votes and Grand Alliance will get 40% votes, in which NDA will get 22 seats and Grand Alliance will get 18 seats.
In Bihar, the BJP and its allies have lost at least 17 seats, and may lose more than 25 seats if the grand alliance gains ground. That means at least 18 seats for the Grand Alliance and 22 seats for the NDA and if it is more then it is expected that the Grand Alliance will get 25 seats and the NDA will get 15 seats.