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Mumbai: RBI in its April bulletin has said that inflation may increase due to adverse weather and crude oil prices may remain volatile due to prolonged tensions globally. It is also mentioned in the report of the Reserve Bank of India that there are initial signs of going away.
Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation fell to 4.9 percent in March. The average retail inflation in the last two months was 5.1 percent.
The Reserve Bank mainly considers retail inflation while reviewing its bi-monthly monetary policy. Due to high inflation, RBI has kept the key interest rate constant at 6.5 percent from February 2023.
The article titled State of the Economy published in the bulletin said that the pace of global growth in the first quarter of 2024 remains unchanged and the global trade outlook looks positive.
Treasury yields and mortgage rates are rising in major economies. The possibilities of cutting interest rates are becoming weak. Conditions are favorable for India's real GDP growth to accelerate due to strong investment demand and upbeat business and consumer sentiments.
The central bank's monthly bulletin released today said the positive global trade outlook is expected to boost India's exports and boost growth.
IMF expects India to contribute 16 percent to global growth. Which is the second largest contribution in the world based on market exchange rates. India is currently the fifth largest economy in the world and may overtake Japan and Germany in the next ten years.
March 2024 is set to be the hottest month since records began in 1850, global meteorological agencies have said.
It has been said in the bulletin that to meet the targets set for the next 30 years, the Indian economy will have to grow at the rate of 8 to 10 percent for the next ten years.