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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted good rainfall in the upcoming monsoon period. The forecast of 'good rains' is also a hidden warning for the Center and the states. So that, the Central and State Governments can take timely measures to avoid the flood situation and its effects. The IMD has estimated that the southwest monsoon in June-September will be above normal, at 106% of the long period or 50-year average. Being the lifeline for India's rain-fed Kharif crop season, the forecast raises hopes of revival in agriculture sector growth.
The forecast of more rain is a relief to India's sluggish agricultural economy and sluggish rural consumption. But the possibility of extreme rainfall that could wreak havoc in the form of floods is certainly a warning for governments to remain alert and prepared. The Central and State Governments should make concrete arrangements in time to deal with this. So that, in case of flood, there is minimum loss of life, property and crops.
Agriculture growth rate will be 0.7% in 2024
Government estimates show agriculture growth slowing to 0.7% in FY2024 from 4.7% in FY23. One reason for this was uneven rainfall. A good harvest this year will improve agricultural income and increase rural wages. Increase in the income of villagers will boost the sale of daily consumption items, which was slowing down for some time.
The days of heavy rain are increasing
The number of days with extreme rainfall during monsoon has increased in the last few years. This is a side effect of global warming. According to the IMD there is a 30% chance that rainfall will be in the 'extreme' category, or more than 110% of the long period average (LPA). There is a 60% chance that rainfall will be above normal or much above 104% of LPA. This means that submergence of parts of India will result in loss of life, property, infrastructure and cultivated crops.
Clear picture will be available in May
The IMD will issue an update of the forecast in late May before the monsoon reaches Kerala. This will give a clear idea of how the rainfall will be in different areas during the four-month long season. Drought in the first half (June and July) and excessive moisture in the second half, when harvesting begins, increase the risk of crop loss.
There will be more rain due to La Nina
According to IMD, El Nino conditions are likely to weaken in the initial phase of monsoon. Whereas La Nina conditions are likely to develop during the second half. El Niño and La Niña, sea surface temperatures over the Pacific and Indian Ocean, strongly influence monsoon rainfall. While the former increases the risk of less rainfall, the latter increases the risk of excess rainfall. La Nina conditions are likely to be aided by a positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which will bring more rainfall.
Food prices may increase
Retail food inflation stood at 8.5% in March. The current increase in food prices is due to cereals (8.4% higher), vegetables (28.3%) and pulses (17.7%). Uneven rainfall in 2024 could impact production of these commodities, leading to higher prices and pressure on household budgets. At present, the IMD expects above normal rainfall over most parts of India except parts of northwest, east and north-east India. The best that can be expected is well-distributed rainfall and no excessive rainfall in a short period of time. This should control the prices of food items.
