BJP’s big strategy on seat sharing formula in UP


Regarding the upcoming assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh, the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has started laying the chessboard to keep its National Democratic Alliance (NDA) clan together and work out the equations of social engineering. According to top party sources, an in-principle agreement has been reached between the BJP state leadership and the central organization on the seat sharing formula for the alliance partners. Under this strategic formula, BJP is planning to leave around 60 to 70 seats for its allies—Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD), Apna Dal (Sonelal), Suheldev Bharatiya Samaj Party (Subhashpa) and Nishad Party. It is believed that this proposal will be finalized in the upcoming top level meeting chaired by Home Minister Amit Shah.

BJP, which is entering the field with the aim of hoisting its flag again on 403 assembly seats of Uttar Pradesh, has deeply explored the political equations at the grassroots level. The party high command believes that taking along the regional satraps from Purvanchal to Western UP is the key to electoral success. According to the possible seat sharing plan, Jayant Choudhary’s RLD, which has a strong support base in western Uttar Pradesh, may be given about 25 to 30 seats. Union Minister Anupriya Patel’s Apna Dal (S), which has a good hold on the Kurmi vote bank, is expected to get 15 to 18 seats, Om Prakash Rajbhar’s Subhashpa is expected to get 10 to 12 seats and Dr. Sanjay Nishad’s Nishad Party is expected to get 6 to 8 seats. With this allocation, BJP itself will field its candidates on 330 to 340 seats.

Union Home Minister Amit Shah himself is taking charge of finalizing this strategic formula of seat sharing and preparing the electoral maze. Soon a high-level meeting of Amit Shah is going to be held in New Delhi with Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath, State BJP President Pankaj Chaudhary and organization ministers of the state. In this meeting, an account will be taken of the preferred seats being sought by the allies and their performance in the previous elections. The official announcement of alliance seats will be made only after the final approval of Amit Shah, so that any kind of dissatisfaction among the partners can be removed in advance.

This seat sharing plan of BJP is completely based on social engineering and regional balance. While the responsibility of catering to the Jat and farmer dominated areas in Western UP will be on the shoulders of RLD, Apna Dal, Subhashpa and Nishad Party will be taken to cater to the OBC (Nonia, Bind, Rajbhar, Kurmi) vote bank of Purvanchal and Central UP. This 60 seat alliance formula of BJP is being considered very important as a cut to the ‘PDA’ (Backward, Dalit, Minority) alliance of Samajwadi Party (SP). Political analysts believe that by giving respectable seats to its allies, BJP is not only strengthening its clan but is also trying to ensure its lead in the first round of the Uttar Pradesh election season.