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The old debate of ‘Jungle Raj vs Good Governance’ has once again gained momentum in the political atmosphere of Uttar Pradesh. The successful election strategy adopted by NDA in the assembly elections of neighboring state Bihar and the comparative model of ‘Then vs Now’ is now being made the main weapon for the upcoming assembly elections of Uttar Pradesh. The ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is once again trying to revive old memories among the voters by raising the issues of law and order, mafia raj and appeasement of the previous regime of the opposition Samajwadi Party (SP). On the other hand, Samajwadi Party and opposition parties are calling it BJP’s failure and a ploy to divert attention from development issues. In such a situation, the biggest question is whether a strategy like Bihar will be successful in Uttar Pradesh and in whose favor will this big political issue of law and order tilt the electoral scale?
#1. What is ‘Bihar Playbook’ formula and why is it being discussed in UP elections?
In the recent assembly elections in Bihar, the NDA alliance, along with the claims of development, had strongly placed the discourse of crime and disorder of the old era among the public, which was given huge support by the people there. On the same lines, now the ruling party in Uttar Pradesh has also started preparing the outline of the campaign by placing the incidents, riots, law and order situation during the old SP government and the fearless style of the mafia in front of the ‘zero tolerance’ and development works of the present Yogi government. Political analysts believe that the main objective of this strategy is to rekindle the atmosphere of fear and insecurity of the past in the minds of common voters, with which they were struggling before 2017.
#1. BJP’s ‘Data and Comparison Campaign’: Crackdown on Mafia vs old anarchy
To strengthen the electoral ground in Uttar Pradesh, BJP leaders and strategists have started openly reminding the tenure of the old SP government through platforms. Key ministers and leaders of the government say that the public has not forgotten how earlier every district used to be ruled by a particular mafia and communal riots were common on a daily basis. On the contrary, the network of expressways, better power supply, investment climate and bulldozer crackdown on mafias are being projected as the main achievements in the state in the last few years. The party believes that this issue of security and law and order is the biggest trust base among women, businessmen and general public, which proves to be a game changer at the time of elections.
#1. Samajwadi Party’s counterattack: ‘Those who tell old stories have themselves failed in the present’
On the other hand, the main opposition party Samajwadi Party has strongly hit back at this strategy, saying that BJP has no concrete work left to show in its current tenure, hence it is forced to turn the pages of history again and again. SP leaders argue that the public is now troubled by unemployment, inflation, paper leaks and basic problems and they are not going to be misled by these old issues. Citing the results of the recently concluded Legislative Council (MLC) elections, the opposition camp is claiming that the public is now voting on the current economic and social crises and not on the old scaremongerings.
#1. This issue of law and order will ultimately vote in whose favor?
Political experts believe that the issue of law and order has always been a sharp weapon in a multidimensional state like Uttar Pradesh. While one class considers the strict administrative hold of the government and safe environment as its first choice, the other class gives priority to issues like inflation and employment. As the election dates approach, it will be very interesting to see whether the public’s inclination remains towards comparison of the past and guarantee of security or whether the new issues of inflation and unemployment being raised by the opposition parties can overcome this ‘Bihar wali chal’.