Why did Pakistan tremble after the Houthi attack on Saudi? Understand the biggest compulsion of Shahbaz government amid America-Iran war

The tension between America and Iran in the Middle East (West Asia) is now taking the form of a terrible war. Yemen supported by Iran Houthi Rebels There has been panic in the entire Gulf region after the recent missile and drone attacks on Saudi Arabia’s oil refineries and important targets. But the heat of this regional war is burning Pakistan the most. After this attack, Shahbaz Sharif government is very nervous and has lost sleep. Let us understand from the perspective of a foreign affairs and geopolitical reporter why this attack on Saudi has been the biggest blow to Pakistan.

1. The looming specter of severe economic crisis and oil crisis.

Pakistan is currently in ICU due to the worst economic crisis in its history and burdened with debt.

• Dependence on Oil: Pakistan is almost entirely dependent on the Gulf countries—especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE)—for its energy needs and crude oil.

• Impact of attack on refinery: If Saudi oil production is interrupted due to Houthi attacks or the maritime trade route of the Red Sea is completely disrupted, then the price of crude oil in the global market may cross 150 to 200 dollars per barrel.

• Fear of becoming poor: Pakistan does not have enough foreign exchange reserves to buy oil at expensive prices. If oil becomes expensive, then the shortage of petrol and diesel and unprecedented inflation in Pakistan will bring the people there onto the streets.

2. Stopping of ‘dooms’ and financial help from Saudi

Pakistan’s existence currently depends on the loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the ‘financial bailout’ (economic help) of billions of dollars given by Saudi Arabia.

Saudi Arabia has deposited billions of dollars in the Central Bank of Pakistan and provides oil to the Shahbaz government on deferred payment. But if Saudi Arabia itself gets embroiled in war and security crisis, it can stop financial aid to Pakistan. For Pakistan, the cessation of this dole from Riyadh will be no less than a major economic shock.

3. Religious crisis and Pakistan becomes ‘sandwich’ between America and Iran

Pakistan’s biggest diplomatic compulsion is that on one side it borders Iran and on the other side it remains a supporter of America and Saudi Arabia.

• Direct border with Iran: Pakistan shares a 900 km long border (Sistan-Baluchistan Border) with Iran. If the US imposes a full-scale war on Iran, the instability in Iran will have a direct impact on the ongoing separatist violence in Pakistan’s Balochistan province.

• Well on both sides, ditch on one side: America will put pressure on Pakistan to support its military alliance or allow it to use its airports/airspace. But if Pakistan supports America, Iran will not refrain from attacking it. If it remains neutral, America and Saudi Arabia will cut its economic ties.