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At present, the biggest discussion in the political circles regarding the politics of Uttar Pradesh and the upcoming elections is revolving around the alliance of Samajwadi Party (SP). After a stellar performance in the Lok Sabha elections, SP chief Akhilesh Yadav is making his move with great enthusiasm. This question is fast floating in the political circles that why Akhilesh Yadav does not want to bring Chandrashekhar Azad, who is considered the emerging face of Dalit politics, and Hyderabad MP Asaduddin Owaisi’s party AIMIM into his fold. A very thoughtful strategic plan of Akhilesh Yadav and some deep political fears are hidden behind keeping these leaders, who appear strong at first glance, away from the alliance.
What is the threat to SP due to Chandrashekhar’s hold on Dalit vote bank?
Azad Samaj Party chief Chandrashekhar Azad has created a strong base for himself in the politics of western Uttar Pradesh. His craze is continuously increasing among the Dalit youth. In such a situation, Akhilesh Yadav’s biggest fear is that if he includes Chandrashekhar in the alliance, then a new power center may arise within the traditional core vote bank of SP. SP strategists believe that after the weakening of Mayawati’s BSP, the non-Jatav Dalit vote which is getting attracted towards Samajwadi Party, with the coming together of Chandrashekhar, that vote bank can completely shift towards Azad Samaj Party. Akhilesh does not want any other leader in his own alliance to emerge as the biggest face of Dalits and challenge his leadership.
Why is Akhilesh Yadav avoiding Asaduddin Owaisi’s entry?
Samajwadi Party’s fear behind not including Asaduddin Owaisi’s party AIMIM in the alliance is completely different. Muslim voters have traditionally been the strongest base of SP in UP politics. Akhilesh Yadav feels that if Owaisi shares the stage with him, BJP will get a direct opportunity to polarize the elections. By using Owaisi’s aggressive statements as a shield, opposition parties can consolidate the votes of the majority community, which can cause major damage to SP’s ‘PDA’ (Backward, Dalit, Minority) social engineering. Apart from this, SP wants to keep the control of Muslim leadership completely in its hands, which the presence of Owaisi can weaken.
Complex mathematics of vote share and seat distribution
One of the biggest problems in coalition politics comes with the coordination of seats. Both Chandrashekhar Azad and Owaisi can demand a large number of seats in the UP elections to expand their respective parties. Akhilesh Yadav feels that giving more seats to small parties means that Samajwadi Party’s own powerful and loyal leaders will have to be cut from their tickets. In many districts of Western UP and Purvanchal, SP has its own strong candidates who are not ready to give up their seats for any outside party. In such a situation, to avoid internal rebellion at the time of ticket distribution, Akhilesh is considering it safer to maintain distance from these two leaders.
Akhilesh wants to run PDA formula without any interference
Akhilesh Yadav’s entire attention is currently focused on his own created ‘PDA’ formula. The results of Lok Sabha elections have given confidence to SP that they can win the trust of Dalits and backward people even without the crutch of any big face. Akhilesh believes that instead of taking established and ambitious leaders like Chandrashekhar or Owaisi, he should directly include local and grassroots leaders of these communities in SP. By doing this there will be no internal discord within the alliance and the leadership of Samajwadi Party will remain completely safe. This is the Chakravyuh with the help of which Akhilesh Yadav is dreaming of regaining power in Uttar Pradesh.