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Rating agency CRISIL has estimated that the Indian economy will reach $7 trillion by 2031. This estimate has been expressed with an estimated average economic growth rate of 6.7 percent in the medium term between 2025 and 2031. Which is considered equal to the growth rate of 6.6 percent in the decade before the Corona epidemic.
In particular, the economy will accelerate due to increase in capital expenditure and increase in productivity. According to CRISIL, GDP growth rate in the current financial year may be 6.8 percent. However, higher interest rates and stricter lending regulations could impact urban demand. Development may be affected due to reduced political incentives for development.
India’s current account deficit is likely to remain stable: India’s current account deficit is likely to remain stable in the safe zone due to significant growth in services exports and huge remittances from abroad. Which may increase by 1 percent of GDP in 2024-25. It increased by 0.7 percent in 2023-24. There has been a significant growth of 17.25 percent in India’s merchandise exports in October this year, resulting in exports reaching the level of $39.20 billion. Which was 33.43 billion dollars in the same month last year. Despite the decline in global trade, exports have grown in double digits. India’s manufacturing sector has seen strong growth in exports of engineering goods, electronics goods, organic and inorganic chemicals and textiles. India’s total exports in October 2024 stood at $73.21 billion. Which shows an increase of 19.08 percent compared to October 2023. Total imports in October stood at $83.33 billion, showing an increase of 7.77 percent compared to October 2023.
Possibility of decline in inflation
Consumer price inflation (CPI) is expected to decline to 4.5 percent in 2024-25 from 5.4 percent last year. Inflation can be reduced especially due to reduction in food inflation. Growth and inflation expectations may be affected by weather uncertainty as well as geographical conditions. Sowing of various crops has increased in the Kharif season this year. Of course, the effects of unseasonal rains and heavy monsoon rains are uncertain.