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RBI Credit Policy: RBI has presented the monetary policy. There has been no change in the repo rate in this. However, this was already being anticipated. The 6-member Monetary Policy Committee of RBI has decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 6.5 percent with a majority of 4-2. The Monetary Policy Committee of RBI has also not changed its stance. RBI has now changed its stance to 'neutral'. According to economists' estimates, no change in rates is expected in the MPC meeting before the new financial year.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that there is a possibility of inflation increasing in September. Food inflation is likely to rise towards the end of the financial year. Government spending remained low in Q1FY25. Agricultural activities gained momentum due to good monsoon. According to the data, considerable improvement was seen in economic activities. The output of 8 main industrial activities declined.
GDP growth unchanged at 7.2%
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said FY25 real GDP growth forecast remains unchanged at 7.2%. GDP growth estimate for Q2FY25 has been reduced to 7% from 7.2%. GDP growth in Q3FY25 is estimated to accelerate to 7.4% from 7.3%. Q4 FY25 GDP growth estimate increased to 7.4% from 7.2%. Real GDP estimate for Q1 FY26 will rise to 7.3% from 7.2%.
CPI estimate unchanged at 4.5%
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das further said that the rise in September CPI was due to the base effect. FY25 CPI inflation forecast remains unchanged at 4.5%. Q2 FY25 CPI inflation is estimated at 4.1%, down from 4.4%. Q3 FY25 CPI inflation estimate raised to 4.8% from 4.7%. Q4 FY25 CPI inflation estimate reduced to 4.2% from 4.3%. Q1 FY26 CPI inflation estimate cut to 4.3% from 4.4%. If food and metal prices remain high, CPI may increase. If goods remain expensive then the risk of CPI increasing will increase.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that if geopolitical tensions worsen, its negative impact is possible. Grain prices may fall due to higher agricultural production. Credit market transmission will be satisfactory. The stability of the rupee against the dollar would indeed be commendable. A stable rupee indicates strong macro conditions.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that banks, NBFCs will have to maintain quality norms. Banks have to be careful about inactive accounts. Some NBFCs are setting a new benchmark for risks. Ignoring rules for growth by NBFCs. The policy of NBFC is not in the interest of the customers. NBFCs will have to review their compensation policy. CAD can be viewed at its stability level. The country's foreign exchange crosses 700 billion dollars. External financial needs will be well met.
RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das further said that the draft is available in the public domain for MSEs. Discussions are underway to raise funds for UCB. Willing to take environmental action. RBI adopts Climate Risk Information System. UPI Lite wallet limit increased from Rs 2000 to Rs 5000. RTG, NEFT facilities were also improved. Better facility of RTG, NEFT to prevent fraud. The economic condition of the country is continuously improving.