Mumbai: There has been a major error in the calculation of gold import estimates for November and January 2024 and the new data released by the government has shown a huge decline in imports. This cut will also change the country’s trade deficit figures.
The government has drastically reduced the gold import estimate figure for the period January to November last year. This is the first time in history that import estimates for any commodity have been revised so drastically. In value terms, the figure of gold imports for November has decreased by $ 5 billion from earlier $ 14.80 billion to $ 9.84 billion. Gold import in November, which was earlier fixed at 170 tonnes, has now been reduced to 117 tonnes.
It is discussed that when the calculation method was changed in July, the gold present in the warehouse was counted twice. The import estimate for January to November, which was earlier set at 796 tonnes, has been reduced by 132 tonnes to 664 tonnes. Government sources said the number was higher earlier due to double counting.
In October, gold import value was $7.13 billion, and the market was surprised by the higher figure in November. Government sources further said that if the import figures improve then the country’s overall trade deficit will also reduce significantly.
The total gold import bill for the first eleven months of 2024 is now $47 billion, much higher than the $42.60 billion seen for all of 2023.
Earlier, when the data was released, higher imports were attributed to rising demand for gold and increased buying by the Reserve Bank. In last year’s budget, the import duty on gold was reduced from 15 percent to six percent and it was also said that investment in gold is increasing due to geopolitical tensions.
India is the second largest consumer of gold in the world and has to depend on imports to meet domestic demand. Generally, Dussehra-Diwali festival and wedding season falls in the December quarter, hence the demand for gold in the country is high during this period.
India’s gold imports are mostly from Switzerland, UAE, African countries and Peru. In the year 2024, investment in gold got better returns than equity in India. Last year, a return of 27 percent was given on gold.