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News India Live, Digital Desk: The bugle of assembly elections has been sounded in Kerala, the gateway to South India, but for the main opposition party Congress, the path to reach the throne of the capital Thiruvananthapuram seems to be thorny. While the ruling Left Democratic Front (LDF) is aiming for a ‘hat-trick’ in the elections to be held on April 9, the Congress-led United Democratic Front (UDF) is fighting for survival. According to political analysts, there are four major challenges before Congress, which can become obstacles in the way of its victory.
1. ‘Eclipse’ of factionalism: War between Tharoor and high command
The biggest problem for Congress is internal discord. The tension between veteran leader Shashi Tharoor and the state leadership of the party has now come out openly on the streets. Tharoor’s distance from the recent strategy meeting attended by Rahul Gandhi has made it clear that the termite of factionalism is hollowing the party from within. The abundance of faces for the post of Chief Minister has confused even the workers as to whose leadership the battle is being fought.
2. Breach in the vote bank: The game of Christian-Muslim equation is getting worse
In Kerala politics, minority (Christian and Muslim) communities play the role of kingmakers, constituting about 47% of the voters. This time the inclination of Christian voters is shocking. The ‘Koshi Commission’ report and the increasing activism of the Church have indicated that Christian voters may now move away from the traditional camp of Congress and move towards LDF or BJP. At the same time, Congress’s closeness to groups like Jamaat-e-Islami has also forced many secular voters to think.
3. The strength of ‘Red Fort’ and the magic of Pinarayi
Under the leadership of Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, LDF has created history by staying in power for two consecutive terms. Breaking the record of government’s welfare schemes and disaster management is proving to be a difficult task for the Congress. In contrast to the ‘continuity’ shown by LDF in announcing its candidates, the rebellion in Congress over ticket distribution has damaged the party’s image. The Left camp is campaigning aggressively by calling Congress the ‘second team of BJP’.
4. BJP’s rising graph: danger of triangular contest
Till now the contest in Kerala has been bipolar (LDF vs UDF), but BJP is emerging as a third major force in the 2026 elections. The increasing vote share of BJP in areas like Thiruvananthapuram and Thrissur is directly eating into the vote bank of Congress. The presence of big faces like Rajeev Chandrashekhar in the field has made the contest triangular. Experts say that wherever there is a triangular contest, LDF can get the direct benefit of vote distribution.