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The biennial elections going to be held for two Rajya Sabha seats in Jharkhand have brought immense heat in the politics of the state. With the entry of three big candidates for two seats in the electoral fray, the mathematics from Dalal Street to the political corridors of Ranchi has become completely complicated. On behalf of the ruling ‘India’ alliance, Baidyanath Ram of JMM and Pranab Jha of Congress have filed their nomination in the presence of Chief Minister Hemant Soren. But the game became interesting when BJP supported independent candidate Parimal Nathwani also entered the fray. Since Nathwani’s surprise entry, speculations are being made whether the seat of Pranab Jha, the National Secretary of Congress and considered very close to the high command, is in trouble.
Two seats and three contenders, this is how the whole equation got spoiled
At present, to win a Rajya Sabha seat in the Jharkhand Assembly, at least 28 first preference votes (support of MLAs) are required. In terms of numbers, the ruling alliance has the potential to win both the seats easily, provided all the constituent parties of the alliance remain completely united. JMM has fielded Baidyanath Ram from its quota, who has sufficient numerical strength from its JMM MLAs. The problem is in the second seat, where Congress has fielded Pranab Jha. To sail his boat, Pranab Jha desperately needs the support of not only the Congress MLAs but also the remaining MLAs of JMM, RJD and Left parties (CPI-ML).
Parimal Nathwani’s entry increased the heartbeat of Congress.
Parimal Nathwani, who has been an independent Rajya Sabha MP from Jharkhand twice before, cannot be taken lightly. Nathwani has made the contest triangular by filing independent nomination and getting tacit or direct support of NDA. Despite the number of MLAs that BJP and its allies have, Nathwani will have to arrange some additional votes to win. Political analysts believe that Nathwani has his sights set on the opposition as well as the disgruntled MLAs of the ruling coalition. For this reason, the fears of ‘horse trading’ (buying and selling of MLAs) and ‘cross voting’ are increasing rapidly in the state, which can directly spoil the equation of the Congress candidate.
The ball of damage control is in CM Hemant Soren’s court.
Seeing the difficulties coming in the way of Congress candidate Pranab Jha, the Congress leadership from Delhi to Ranchi has become active. Top Congress leaders recently met Chief Minister Hemant Soren and had a long discussion on ensuring the unity of the alliance. However, Chief Minister Hemant Soren himself was present at the time of Pranab Jha’s nomination, which shows that JMM is superficially standing with the Congress. But the real test will be on the day of voting, when the extra votes of JMM, 4 RJD and 2 CPI(ML) MLAs will have to be united and transferred to the Congress account. If there is even a slight mistake in this strategy, Pranab Jha may have to suffer the consequences.
Pranab Jha’s credibility at stake, Delhi’s eyes fixed on him
Pranab Jha is not just a candidate, but he is associated with the office of Congress President Mallikarjun Kharge and is the chief media manager and national secretary of the party. He is counted among the captains close to Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi. In such a situation, winning this seat of Jharkhand has become a question of prestige for the Congress high command. If the independent candidates are successful in making a dent in this complicated political mathematics of Jharkhand, then it will prove to be a big political blow not only for the coalition government of Jharkhand but also for the Congress at the national level. Now it will be interesting to see which side the camel sits on in the voting to be held on June 18.